Marcus W. Beck, Kerry Flaherty-Walia, Sheila Scolaro, Maya C. Burke, Bradley T. Furman, David J. Karlen, Christopher Pratt, Christopher J. Anastasiou, Edward T. Sherwood
{"title":"热而新鲜:与气候有关的海湾沿岸大型河口海草次优水质条件的证据","authors":"Marcus W. Beck, Kerry Flaherty-Walia, Sheila Scolaro, Maya C. Burke, Bradley T. Furman, David J. Karlen, Christopher Pratt, Christopher J. Anastasiou, Edward T. Sherwood","doi":"10.1007/s12237-024-01385-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Seagrasses have long been a focal point for management efforts aimed at restoring ecosystem health in estuaries worldwide. In Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), seagrass coverage has declined since 2016 by nearly a third (11,518 acres), despite sustained reductions of nitrogen loads supportive of light environments for growth. Changing physical water quality conditions related to climate change may be stressing seagrasses beyond their optimal growth ranges, requiring an assessment to determine if this decline can be linked to climate stress. Three ambient water quality datasets of varying sampling designs and coverage were evaluated to characterize physicochemical environments in Tampa Bay and the potential relationships with seagrass change. Tampa Bay has become hotter and fresher with water temperature increasing by 0.03–0.04 °C per year and salinity decreasing by 0.04–0.06 ppt per year, translating to an increase of 1.3 to 1.7 °C and a decrease of 1.6 to 2.6 ppt over the last 50 years. Additionally, the number of days when temperature was above 30 °C or salinity was below 25 ppt has increased on average across all bay segments by 48 and 37 days, respectively, since 1975. These changes varied spatially and seasonally, with the most dramatic changes observed in the upper bay. Generalized Additive Models provided a weight-of-evidence that recent seagrass declines are somewhat associated with hotter and fresher conditions. Trends in warming and increased precipitation in the region are likely to continue, further creating suboptimal conditions for seagrasses in Tampa Bay. These results should compel resource managers to consider the likelihood that reduced resilience of estuarine resources due to shifting ecological baselines driven by additional climate change drivers will complicate long-standing management paradigms. While conventional management approaches that focus on limiting nutrient loads should be continued, their future effectiveness may be confounded by climate change drivers and warrant additional, complementary interventions and continuous monitoring data to support ecosystem health into the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":11921,"journal":{"name":"Estuaries and Coasts","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Hot and Fresh: Evidence of Climate-Related Suboptimal Water Conditions for Seagrass in a Large Gulf Coast Estuary\",\"authors\":\"Marcus W. Beck, Kerry Flaherty-Walia, Sheila Scolaro, Maya C. Burke, Bradley T. Furman, David J. Karlen, Christopher Pratt, Christopher J. Anastasiou, Edward T. Sherwood\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12237-024-01385-0\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Seagrasses have long been a focal point for management efforts aimed at restoring ecosystem health in estuaries worldwide. In Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), seagrass coverage has declined since 2016 by nearly a third (11,518 acres), despite sustained reductions of nitrogen loads supportive of light environments for growth. Changing physical water quality conditions related to climate change may be stressing seagrasses beyond their optimal growth ranges, requiring an assessment to determine if this decline can be linked to climate stress. Three ambient water quality datasets of varying sampling designs and coverage were evaluated to characterize physicochemical environments in Tampa Bay and the potential relationships with seagrass change. Tampa Bay has become hotter and fresher with water temperature increasing by 0.03–0.04 °C per year and salinity decreasing by 0.04–0.06 ppt per year, translating to an increase of 1.3 to 1.7 °C and a decrease of 1.6 to 2.6 ppt over the last 50 years. Additionally, the number of days when temperature was above 30 °C or salinity was below 25 ppt has increased on average across all bay segments by 48 and 37 days, respectively, since 1975. These changes varied spatially and seasonally, with the most dramatic changes observed in the upper bay. Generalized Additive Models provided a weight-of-evidence that recent seagrass declines are somewhat associated with hotter and fresher conditions. Trends in warming and increased precipitation in the region are likely to continue, further creating suboptimal conditions for seagrasses in Tampa Bay. These results should compel resource managers to consider the likelihood that reduced resilience of estuarine resources due to shifting ecological baselines driven by additional climate change drivers will complicate long-standing management paradigms. While conventional management approaches that focus on limiting nutrient loads should be continued, their future effectiveness may be confounded by climate change drivers and warrant additional, complementary interventions and continuous monitoring data to support ecosystem health into the future.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11921,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Estuaries and Coasts\",\"volume\":\"2 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Estuaries and Coasts\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-024-01385-0\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Estuaries and Coasts","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-024-01385-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Hot and Fresh: Evidence of Climate-Related Suboptimal Water Conditions for Seagrass in a Large Gulf Coast Estuary
Seagrasses have long been a focal point for management efforts aimed at restoring ecosystem health in estuaries worldwide. In Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), seagrass coverage has declined since 2016 by nearly a third (11,518 acres), despite sustained reductions of nitrogen loads supportive of light environments for growth. Changing physical water quality conditions related to climate change may be stressing seagrasses beyond their optimal growth ranges, requiring an assessment to determine if this decline can be linked to climate stress. Three ambient water quality datasets of varying sampling designs and coverage were evaluated to characterize physicochemical environments in Tampa Bay and the potential relationships with seagrass change. Tampa Bay has become hotter and fresher with water temperature increasing by 0.03–0.04 °C per year and salinity decreasing by 0.04–0.06 ppt per year, translating to an increase of 1.3 to 1.7 °C and a decrease of 1.6 to 2.6 ppt over the last 50 years. Additionally, the number of days when temperature was above 30 °C or salinity was below 25 ppt has increased on average across all bay segments by 48 and 37 days, respectively, since 1975. These changes varied spatially and seasonally, with the most dramatic changes observed in the upper bay. Generalized Additive Models provided a weight-of-evidence that recent seagrass declines are somewhat associated with hotter and fresher conditions. Trends in warming and increased precipitation in the region are likely to continue, further creating suboptimal conditions for seagrasses in Tampa Bay. These results should compel resource managers to consider the likelihood that reduced resilience of estuarine resources due to shifting ecological baselines driven by additional climate change drivers will complicate long-standing management paradigms. While conventional management approaches that focus on limiting nutrient loads should be continued, their future effectiveness may be confounded by climate change drivers and warrant additional, complementary interventions and continuous monitoring data to support ecosystem health into the future.
期刊介绍:
Estuaries and Coasts is the journal of the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation (CERF). Begun in 1977 as Chesapeake Science, the journal has gradually expanded its scope and circulation. Today, the journal publishes scholarly manuscripts on estuarine and near coastal ecosystems at the interface between the land and the sea where there are tidal fluctuations or sea water is diluted by fresh water. The interface is broadly defined to include estuaries and nearshore coastal waters including lagoons, wetlands, tidal fresh water, shores and beaches, but not the continental shelf. The journal covers research on physical, chemical, geological or biological processes, as well as applications to management of estuaries and coasts. The journal publishes original research findings, reviews and perspectives, techniques, comments, and management applications. Estuaries and Coasts will consider properly carried out studies that present inconclusive findings or document a failed replication of previously published work. Submissions that are primarily descriptive, strongly place-based, or only report on development of models or new methods without detailing their applications fall outside the scope of the journal.