Predicting Clinical Improvement in Early Psychosis Using Circuit-Based Resting-State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Background and hypothesis: Identifying biomarkers that predict treatment response in early psychosis (EP) is a priority for psychiatry research. Previous work suggests that resting-state connectivity biomarkers may have promise as predictive measures, although prior results vary considerably in direction and magnitude. Here, we evaluated the relationship between intrinsic functional connectivity of the attention, default mode, and salience resting-state networks and 12-month clinical improvement in EP.

Study design: Fifty-eight individuals with EP (less than 2 years from illness onset, 35 males, average age 20 years) had baseline and follow-up clinical data and were included in the final sample. Of these, 30 EPs showed greater than 20% improvement in Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) total score at follow-up and were classified as "Improvers."

Study results: The overall logistic regression predicting Improver status was significant (χ2 = 23.66, Nagelkerke's R2 = 0.45, P < .001, with 85% concordance). Significant individual predictors of Improver status included higher default mode within-network connectivity, higher attention-default mode between-network connectivity, and higher attention-salience between-network connectivity. Including baseline BPRS as a predictor increased model significance and concordance to 92%, and the model was not significantly influenced by the dose of antipsychotic medication (chlorpromazine equivalents). Linear regression models predicting percent change in BPRS were also significant.

Conclusions: Overall, these results suggest that resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging connectivity may serve as a useful biomarker of clinical outcomes in recent-onset psychosis.