The prevalence of metabolically healthy obesity and its transition into the unhealthy state: A 5-year follow-up study

People with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) are at risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases. We investigated the prevalence of MHO and factors influencing its transition into a metabolically unhealthy state (MUS). This study was conducted as part of the Kerman Coronary Artery Disease Risk Factor Study (KERCADRS). From 2014 to 2018, 9997 people were evaluated. The obesity and metabolic status of the MHO participants were re-examined after 5 years of their initial participation in the study. Out of 347 MHO, 238 individuals were accessed at follow-up. Twenty-nine (12.2%) had metabolic unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), 169 (71.0%) had metabolic unhealthy obesity (MUO), and the others had healthy metabolic state. Among age, total cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure and triglyceride (TG) variables, the baseline serum TG level was associated with a significant increase in the risk of developing MUS during 5 years (p <.05). The TG level optimal cut-off point for predicting the development into MUS was 107 mg/dL with 62.1% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity (AUC = 0.734, p <.001). A high percentage of MHO people transit into MUS during 5 years. A TG level higher than 107 mg/dL can help to identify people at a higher risk of developing into MUS.