{"title":"东亚森林-草原-沙漠横断面维管植物物种丰富度的当前和未来模式","authors":"Binghe Li, Enzai Du","doi":"10.1111/jvs.13285","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Questions</h3>\n \n <p>Rapid climate change has profoundly altered the spatial distribution of terrestrial plants especially in arid and semi-arid biomes. However, it remains poorly documented how climate shapes the current and future patterns of plant diversity within and across these vulnerable vegetation types.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Location</h3>\n \n <p>Parts of Mongolia, southeastern Russia, and northern China (94.78°–126.78°E, 34.60°–54.27°N).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Using a random forest model trained by a comprehensively compiled database on vascular plant species richness (i.e., the number of species within a defined plot area) and corresponding climate variables, soil conditions and vegetation types (forest, grassland, desert), we assessed the current pattern of vascular plant species richness across a typical forest–grassland–desert transect in East Asia. We further predicted future changes in vascular plant species richness under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>Vascular plant species richness generally showed a decrease from northeast to southwest across the transect, mainly explained by spatial variations in growing-season precipitation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. More than half of the transect area will likely experience a loss in vascular plant species richness in 2041–2070 under all three scenarios. The decrease in vascular plant species richness will likely occur in a smaller area under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6). We also predict distinct changes in vascular plant species richness for different vegetation types, including a slight increase in forests but an overall decrease in both grasslands and deserts.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Our findings suggest a dominant role of growing-season precipitation in shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of vascular plant species richness across the forest–grassland–desert transect and highlight a risk of plant diversity loss in the regional dryland ecosystems in response to future climate change.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":49965,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Vegetation Science","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Current and future patterns of vascular plant species richness across a forest–grassland–desert transect in East Asia\",\"authors\":\"Binghe Li, Enzai Du\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jvs.13285\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Questions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Rapid climate change has profoundly altered the spatial distribution of terrestrial plants especially in arid and semi-arid biomes. However, it remains poorly documented how climate shapes the current and future patterns of plant diversity within and across these vulnerable vegetation types.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Location</h3>\\n \\n <p>Parts of Mongolia, southeastern Russia, and northern China (94.78°–126.78°E, 34.60°–54.27°N).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>Using a random forest model trained by a comprehensively compiled database on vascular plant species richness (i.e., the number of species within a defined plot area) and corresponding climate variables, soil conditions and vegetation types (forest, grassland, desert), we assessed the current pattern of vascular plant species richness across a typical forest–grassland–desert transect in East Asia. We further predicted future changes in vascular plant species richness under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>Vascular plant species richness generally showed a decrease from northeast to southwest across the transect, mainly explained by spatial variations in growing-season precipitation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. More than half of the transect area will likely experience a loss in vascular plant species richness in 2041–2070 under all three scenarios. The decrease in vascular plant species richness will likely occur in a smaller area under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6). We also predict distinct changes in vascular plant species richness for different vegetation types, including a slight increase in forests but an overall decrease in both grasslands and deserts.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Our findings suggest a dominant role of growing-season precipitation in shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of vascular plant species richness across the forest–grassland–desert transect and highlight a risk of plant diversity loss in the regional dryland ecosystems in response to future climate change.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49965,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Vegetation Science\",\"volume\":\"35 4\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Vegetation Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jvs.13285\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Vegetation Science","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jvs.13285","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Current and future patterns of vascular plant species richness across a forest–grassland–desert transect in East Asia
Questions
Rapid climate change has profoundly altered the spatial distribution of terrestrial plants especially in arid and semi-arid biomes. However, it remains poorly documented how climate shapes the current and future patterns of plant diversity within and across these vulnerable vegetation types.
Location
Parts of Mongolia, southeastern Russia, and northern China (94.78°–126.78°E, 34.60°–54.27°N).
Methods
Using a random forest model trained by a comprehensively compiled database on vascular plant species richness (i.e., the number of species within a defined plot area) and corresponding climate variables, soil conditions and vegetation types (forest, grassland, desert), we assessed the current pattern of vascular plant species richness across a typical forest–grassland–desert transect in East Asia. We further predicted future changes in vascular plant species richness under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).
Results
Vascular plant species richness generally showed a decrease from northeast to southwest across the transect, mainly explained by spatial variations in growing-season precipitation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. More than half of the transect area will likely experience a loss in vascular plant species richness in 2041–2070 under all three scenarios. The decrease in vascular plant species richness will likely occur in a smaller area under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6). We also predict distinct changes in vascular plant species richness for different vegetation types, including a slight increase in forests but an overall decrease in both grasslands and deserts.
Conclusions
Our findings suggest a dominant role of growing-season precipitation in shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of vascular plant species richness across the forest–grassland–desert transect and highlight a risk of plant diversity loss in the regional dryland ecosystems in response to future climate change.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Vegetation Science publishes papers on all aspects of plant community ecology, with particular emphasis on papers that develop new concepts or methods, test theory, identify general patterns, or that are otherwise likely to interest a broad international readership. Papers may focus on any aspect of vegetation science, e.g. community structure (including community assembly and plant functional types), biodiversity (including species richness and composition), spatial patterns (including plant geography and landscape ecology), temporal changes (including demography, community dynamics and palaeoecology) and processes (including ecophysiology), provided the focus is on increasing our understanding of plant communities. The Journal publishes papers on the ecology of a single species only if it plays a key role in structuring plant communities. Papers that apply ecological concepts, theories and methods to the vegetation management, conservation and restoration, and papers on vegetation survey should be directed to our associate journal, Applied Vegetation Science journal.
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