气候变化下 2022 年长江特大干旱的多尺度成因

IF 6 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, Shiyu Zhou, Hua Li, Chenyuan Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年长江特大干旱在时间和空间上都具有强度大、发展快的特点,并伴有持续的反气旋环流异常。然而,由于干旱的多尺度性,极端事件的成因仍然难以捉摸。在此,我们简要概述了 2022 年夏季特大干旱的海洋和陆地成因,并估算了气候变化下的风险。以土壤水分百分位数作为干旱指数,发现干旱在两个月内扩大到整个长江流域,8月底流域80%的地区处于严重干旱状态。2022 年特大干旱的强度和发生速度均居近 62 年之首,重现期分别为 86 年和 259 年。综合分析结果表明,春季拉尼娜现象可使长江流域从 5-6 月的湿润/正常状态突然转变为 7-8 月的干旱状态,有利于 2022 年特大山洪灾害强度和发生速度的增加。线性回归分析还表明,此次空前的干旱强度与太平洋十年涛动的负相位有关。通过对土壤水分和水汽压力亏损的耦合强度指数进行量化,发现 2022 年 7-8 月期间长江流域上空存在较强的陆地-大气耦合。利用CMIP6气候模式的归因表明,在自然气候作用下,陆气耦合会使2022年的山洪干旱强度和发生速度风险增加61%±6%和64%±7%,耦合与人为气候变化的协同作用会使风险增加75%±22%和85%±12%。我们的研究结果强调了陆地-大气耦合与人为气候变化在加剧山洪灾害中的作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Multiscale causes of the 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought under climate change

The 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought is characterized by strong intensity and rapid development both in time and space, accompanied by a persistent anticyclonic circulation anomaly. However, the causes of the extreme event remain elusive given the multiscale nature of drought. Here we presented a brief overview for the oceanic and terrestrial causes of the mega-flash drought during the summer of 2022, and estimated the risk in a changing climate. Using the soil moisture percentile as the drought index, it was found that the drought expanded to the entire Yangtze River basin within two months, with 80% of basin under severe drought conditions at the end of August. Both the intensity and onset speed of the 2022 mega-flash drought were ranked as the first during the past 62 years, with return periods of 86 and 259 years, respectively. The results of composite analysis showed that the spring La Niña can facilitate the abrupt change from a wet/normal condition in May–June to drought in July–August over the Yangtze River basin, which was beneficial for the increase of flash drought intensity and onset speed in 2022. The analysis through the linear regression also indicated that the unprecedented intensity was associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Quantified by a coupling strength index for soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit, it was found that there was a strong land-atmosphere coupling over the Yangtze River basin during July–August 2022. The attribution by using CMIP6 climate models suggested that land-atmosphere coupling increased the risks of flash drought intensity and onset speed like 2022 by 61%±6% and 64%±7% under natural climate forcings, and the synergy of coupling and anthropogenic climate change would increase the risks by 75%±22% and 85%±12%. Our findings emphasized the role of land-atmosphere coupling combined with anthropogenic climate change in intensifying flash droughts.

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来源期刊
Science China Earth Sciences
Science China Earth Sciences GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
5.30%
发文量
135
审稿时长
3-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Science China Earth Sciences, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research.
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