Physical and Biological Controls on Short-Term Variations in Dissolved Oxygen in Shallow Waters of a Large Temperate Estuary

Hypoxia in coastal waters is a pressing ecological problem caused by continued eutrophication and climatic change that has widespread consequences for metazoan life and biogeochemical cycles. Numerous studies have investigated the controls on seasonal hypoxia formation and persistence in many of the world’s large estuaries and coastal hypoxic zones, but far fewer studies have examined the controls on short-term oxygen variability that leads to diel-cycling hypoxia in shallow-water environments. We utilized a unique, comprehensive (181 stations) record of dissolved oxygen concentrations collected at shallow water sites (primarily < 2 m) at high frequency (15 min) throughout the estuarine complex of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries to quantify how internal and external variables co-varied with dissolved oxygen. We used a combination of time-series analysis, harmonic analysis, and machine learning (e.g., classification and regression trees (CART)) approaches to identify spatial patterns in major controls on oxygen variability and the duration of moderate hypoxia. We found that key controls on oxygen variability varied substantially over space. For example, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was a strong predictor of oxygen dynamics in the majority of mesohaline waters. In more fetch-exposed stations, wind strongly controlled hypoxic duration, but in eutrophic, inshore locations, chlorophyll a, or turbidity were often better predictors. Specifically, diel oxygen variability was muted in upstream regions characterized by high turbidity. The duration of low oxygen conditions, which we defined conservatively as less than 4.8 mg O₂ L⁻¹ (156 µM), was strongly controlled by temperature, and simple projections of regional warming and CART-derived oxygen thresholds suggest that the Bay could experience a 10% increase in this type of hypoxia duration by mid-to-late twenty-first century. The ratio of tidal to biological variability in oxygen was found to increase under conditions of higher turbidity, stronger wind, and lower salinity, but biological variability was typically a factor of two higher than tidal variability. Although chlorophyll-a generated high oxygen concentrations at some locations, those stations with exceptionally high chlorophyll a (> 30 µg L⁻¹) were the most vulnerable to hypoxia. Because conventional water quality modeling frameworks are designed to capture hypoxia on relatively long time scales, these new insights can help inform updated oxygen models to support the management of shallow-water estuaries in the face of managed nutrient reductions and climate change.