{"title":"肯尼亚的可持续经济发展:侨汇、外国直接投资和进口的影响","authors":"Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Lawrence Ibeh, Manh Cuong Nguyen, Joyce Wangui Kiarie, Cynthia Ikamari","doi":"10.1108/ajems-01-2024-0059","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>Many African countries struggle to sustain steady economic growth. Specific macro-economic factors can influence a country’s economic growth. We investigated the trend and influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports on Kenya’s economic growth.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>We used panel data from the World Bank Indicators database from 1973 to 2021. By utilising the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for econometric analysis and performing computations using R software, we provide valuable insights into both short-term and long-term dynamics.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>In the short term, we establish a non-significant negative impact of FDI and imports on economic growth, contrasting with the positive influence of diaspora remittances. However, in the long term, all three variables – FDI, imports and remittances – emerge as significant determinants of economic growth.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\n<p>The availability and quality of data on diaspora remittances, FDI inflows, imports and economic indicators may vary, leading to potential data limitations, biases or gaps in the analysis. External factors such as global economic trends, political stability, COVID-19, regulatory changes and natural disasters may influence the study’s findings and should be considered when interpreting the results.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>In the short term, the non-significant negative impact of FDI and imports on economic growth suggests that policies promoting FDI and imports may not yield immediate economic growth benefits. Policymakers might need to reassess the effectiveness of current strategies aimed at attracting FDI and managing imports in the short term. The positive influence of diaspora remittances on economic growth underscores the significance of these inflows in supporting economic development. Governments may need to focus on policies that encourage remittance inflows, such as facilitating remittance channels and providing incentives for diaspora investment in the home country. The shift in significance from non-significant in the short term to significant in the long term for FDI, imports and remittances highlights the importance of considering long-term effects in economic planning. Policymakers should adopt strategies that consider the cumulative impact of these factors over time.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Social implications</h3>\n<p>Diaspora remittances often play a crucial role in alleviating poverty and reducing inequality by providing direct financial support to families. Recognising the importance of remittances in improving living standards, policymakers should ensure that policies support the effective utilisation of remittance inflows to address poverty and inequality challenges.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>We therefore contribute original insights by examining the interplay between diaspora remittances, FDI, imports and economic growth over the study period. The emphasis on both short-term and long-term effects adds nicety to understanding their roles in shaping Kenya’s economic growth trail.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Sustainable economic development in Kenya: influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment and imports\",\"authors\":\"Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Lawrence Ibeh, Manh Cuong Nguyen, Joyce Wangui Kiarie, Cynthia Ikamari\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ajems-01-2024-0059\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>Many African countries struggle to sustain steady economic growth. Specific macro-economic factors can influence a country’s economic growth. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
目的 许多非洲国家都在努力维持稳定的经济增长。特定的宏观经济因素会影响一个国家的经济增长。我们研究了侨汇、外国直接投资(FDI)和进口对肯尼亚经济增长的趋势和影响。通过利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型进行计量经济学分析,并使用 R 软件进行计算,我们对短期和长期动态提供了有价值的见解。在短期内,我们确定了外国直接投资和进口对经济增长的非显著负面影响,与侨汇的积极影响形成鲜明对比。然而,从长期来看,所有三个变量--外国直接投资、进口和侨汇--都是经济增长的重要决定因素。研究局限/影响有关侨汇、外国直接投资流入量、进口和经济指标的数据的可用性和质量可能各不相同,从而导致分析中潜在的数据局限、偏差或差距。全球经济趋势、政治稳定、COVID-19、监管变化和自然灾害等外部因素可能会影响研究结果,在解释结果时应加以考虑。 实际意义在短期内,外国直接投资和进口对经济增长的负面影响并不显著,这表明促进外国直接投资和进口的政策可能不会立即产生经济增长效益。政策制定者可能需要重新评估当前旨在吸引外国直接投资和管理进口的短期战略的有效性。侨汇对经济增长的积极影响凸显了这些资金流入在支持经济发展方面的重要性。各国政府可能需要把重点放在鼓励汇款流入的政策上,如促进汇款渠道和为侨民在母国投资提供激励措施。外国直接投资、进口和汇款的重要性从短期的非显著性转变为长期的显著性,这突显了在经济规划中考虑长期影响的重要性。政策制定者应采取考虑这些因素长期累积影响的战略。 社会影响散居国外者的汇款通过向家庭提供直接经济支持,往往在减轻贫困和减少不平等方面发挥着至关重要的作用。认识到汇款在提高生活水平方面的重要性,政策制定者应确保政策支持有效利用汇款流入,以应对贫困和不平等挑战。原创性/价值因此,我们通过研究研究期间侨汇、外国直接投资、进口和经济增长之间的相互作用,贡献了原创性见解。对短期和长期影响的重视,为理解它们在塑造肯尼亚经济增长轨迹中的作用提供了新的视角。
Sustainable economic development in Kenya: influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment and imports
Purpose
Many African countries struggle to sustain steady economic growth. Specific macro-economic factors can influence a country’s economic growth. We investigated the trend and influence of diaspora remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports on Kenya’s economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
We used panel data from the World Bank Indicators database from 1973 to 2021. By utilising the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for econometric analysis and performing computations using R software, we provide valuable insights into both short-term and long-term dynamics.
Findings
In the short term, we establish a non-significant negative impact of FDI and imports on economic growth, contrasting with the positive influence of diaspora remittances. However, in the long term, all three variables – FDI, imports and remittances – emerge as significant determinants of economic growth.
Research limitations/implications
The availability and quality of data on diaspora remittances, FDI inflows, imports and economic indicators may vary, leading to potential data limitations, biases or gaps in the analysis. External factors such as global economic trends, political stability, COVID-19, regulatory changes and natural disasters may influence the study’s findings and should be considered when interpreting the results.
Practical implications
In the short term, the non-significant negative impact of FDI and imports on economic growth suggests that policies promoting FDI and imports may not yield immediate economic growth benefits. Policymakers might need to reassess the effectiveness of current strategies aimed at attracting FDI and managing imports in the short term. The positive influence of diaspora remittances on economic growth underscores the significance of these inflows in supporting economic development. Governments may need to focus on policies that encourage remittance inflows, such as facilitating remittance channels and providing incentives for diaspora investment in the home country. The shift in significance from non-significant in the short term to significant in the long term for FDI, imports and remittances highlights the importance of considering long-term effects in economic planning. Policymakers should adopt strategies that consider the cumulative impact of these factors over time.
Social implications
Diaspora remittances often play a crucial role in alleviating poverty and reducing inequality by providing direct financial support to families. Recognising the importance of remittances in improving living standards, policymakers should ensure that policies support the effective utilisation of remittance inflows to address poverty and inequality challenges.
Originality/value
We therefore contribute original insights by examining the interplay between diaspora remittances, FDI, imports and economic growth over the study period. The emphasis on both short-term and long-term effects adds nicety to understanding their roles in shaping Kenya’s economic growth trail.
期刊介绍:
African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.