Predictive modeling for the germline pathogenic variant of the APC gene in patients with adenomatous polyposis: proposing a new APC score.

Background: The precise diagnosis and medical management of patients with suspected familial adenomatous polyposis should be based on genetic testing, which may not always be available. Therefore, establishing a new model for predicting the likelihood of a germline pathogenic variant (GPV) of APC based on its clinical manifestations could prove to be useful in clinical practice.

Methods: The presence of GPVs of APC gene was investigated in 162 patients with adenomatous polyposis (≥ 10 polyps) using a multigene panel or single-gene testing. To generate a predictive model for GPV of the APC gene, a logistic regression analysis was performed using the clinicopathological variables available at the time of the diagnosis of adenomatous polyposis.

Results: Ninety (55.6%) patients had GPV of the APC gene. According to a multivariate logistic regression analysis, age < 40 years, polyps ≥ 100, fundic gland polyposis, and a family history of colorectal polyposis were found to be independent predictors of the GPV of APC and were used to establish a formula for predicting the GPV of APC using the four predictors. The prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.91 (0.86-0.96) according to a receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Conclusion: The model for predicting the GPV of APC will help patients with adenomatous polyposis and physicians make decisions about genetic testing.