{"title":"通过作物-牲畜一体化改善生计:农场轨迹模型的启示","authors":"Maximilien Cosme , Arouna Koné , Franck Pommereau , Cédric Gaucherel","doi":"10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103949","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><p>Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seek to improve their livelihoods by investing in new assets. These investments and their effectiveness are constrained by current capital and management practices. Therefore, to understand farm trajectories, the combined effects of different management practices and the timing of investments and losses must be considered.</p></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><p>The present study aimed to determine, under 128 distinct scenarios, which ones enable a poorly endowed farm to develop and maintain a sustainable agropastoralism in southwestern Burkina Faso.</p></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><p>For this purpose, we used the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN) modelling framework. This framework includes a formalism based on if-then rules describing economic and ecological events (e.g. investments and losses) that affect qualitative variables. The model rules were built from a literature review, expert interviews, and direct observations. Based on this model, the software then computes all trajectories the farm can take. Based on empirically-reported farm types and trajectories, we then attempted to falsify the modelled dynamics using model-checking techniques.</p></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><p>Model predictions matched all observed farm types and trajectories, thus not falsifying the model. Results highlighted that, for this system, livelihood improvement relied on the ability of the farm to to increase its cultivated area, workforce, livestock and fodder resources, all while producing and applying organic inputs to maintain or recover soil fertility. Although qualitative, model predictions are consistent with available observations and provide explanations about farm trajectories in southwestern Burkina Faso.</p></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><p>The EDEN modelling framework, through its qualitative — yet rigorous — exploration of all possible trajectories, can help the decision-making process by highlighting the far-reaching consequences of management actions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7730,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Improving livelihood through crop-livestock integration: Insights from a farm trajectory model\",\"authors\":\"Maximilien Cosme , Arouna Koné , Franck Pommereau , Cédric Gaucherel\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103949\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>CONTEXT</h3><p>Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seek to improve their livelihoods by investing in new assets. These investments and their effectiveness are constrained by current capital and management practices. Therefore, to understand farm trajectories, the combined effects of different management practices and the timing of investments and losses must be considered.</p></div><div><h3>OBJECTIVE</h3><p>The present study aimed to determine, under 128 distinct scenarios, which ones enable a poorly endowed farm to develop and maintain a sustainable agropastoralism in southwestern Burkina Faso.</p></div><div><h3>METHODS</h3><p>For this purpose, we used the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN) modelling framework. This framework includes a formalism based on if-then rules describing economic and ecological events (e.g. investments and losses) that affect qualitative variables. The model rules were built from a literature review, expert interviews, and direct observations. Based on this model, the software then computes all trajectories the farm can take. Based on empirically-reported farm types and trajectories, we then attempted to falsify the modelled dynamics using model-checking techniques.</p></div><div><h3>RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS</h3><p>Model predictions matched all observed farm types and trajectories, thus not falsifying the model. Results highlighted that, for this system, livelihood improvement relied on the ability of the farm to to increase its cultivated area, workforce, livestock and fodder resources, all while producing and applying organic inputs to maintain or recover soil fertility. Although qualitative, model predictions are consistent with available observations and provide explanations about farm trajectories in southwestern Burkina Faso.</p></div><div><h3>SIGNIFICANCE</h3><p>The EDEN modelling framework, through its qualitative — yet rigorous — exploration of all possible trajectories, can help the decision-making process by highlighting the far-reaching consequences of management actions.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7730,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agricultural Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24000994\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural Systems","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24000994","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Improving livelihood through crop-livestock integration: Insights from a farm trajectory model
CONTEXT
Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seek to improve their livelihoods by investing in new assets. These investments and their effectiveness are constrained by current capital and management practices. Therefore, to understand farm trajectories, the combined effects of different management practices and the timing of investments and losses must be considered.
OBJECTIVE
The present study aimed to determine, under 128 distinct scenarios, which ones enable a poorly endowed farm to develop and maintain a sustainable agropastoralism in southwestern Burkina Faso.
METHODS
For this purpose, we used the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN) modelling framework. This framework includes a formalism based on if-then rules describing economic and ecological events (e.g. investments and losses) that affect qualitative variables. The model rules were built from a literature review, expert interviews, and direct observations. Based on this model, the software then computes all trajectories the farm can take. Based on empirically-reported farm types and trajectories, we then attempted to falsify the modelled dynamics using model-checking techniques.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Model predictions matched all observed farm types and trajectories, thus not falsifying the model. Results highlighted that, for this system, livelihood improvement relied on the ability of the farm to to increase its cultivated area, workforce, livestock and fodder resources, all while producing and applying organic inputs to maintain or recover soil fertility. Although qualitative, model predictions are consistent with available observations and provide explanations about farm trajectories in southwestern Burkina Faso.
SIGNIFICANCE
The EDEN modelling framework, through its qualitative — yet rigorous — exploration of all possible trajectories, can help the decision-making process by highlighting the far-reaching consequences of management actions.
期刊介绍:
Agricultural Systems is an international journal that deals with interactions - among the components of agricultural systems, among hierarchical levels of agricultural systems, between agricultural and other land use systems, and between agricultural systems and their natural, social and economic environments.
The scope includes the development and application of systems analysis methodologies in the following areas:
Systems approaches in the sustainable intensification of agriculture; pathways for sustainable intensification; crop-livestock integration; farm-level resource allocation; quantification of benefits and trade-offs at farm to landscape levels; integrative, participatory and dynamic modelling approaches for qualitative and quantitative assessments of agricultural systems and decision making;
The interactions between agricultural and non-agricultural landscapes; the multiple services of agricultural systems; food security and the environment;
Global change and adaptation science; transformational adaptations as driven by changes in climate, policy, values and attitudes influencing the design of farming systems;
Development and application of farming systems design tools and methods for impact, scenario and case study analysis; managing the complexities of dynamic agricultural systems; innovation systems and multi stakeholder arrangements that support or promote change and (or) inform policy decisions.