[Analysis of risk factors and construction of nomogram model for local lymph node metastasis in salivary gland mucoepidermoid carcinoma].

Objective: To analyze the risk factors affecting regional lymph node metastasis in salivary gland mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC) and to establish a nomogram model for individually predicting lymph node metastasis in salivary gland MEC. Methods: The clinical data of 2 152 patients with salivary gland MEC from 1975 to 2020 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute. The collected data were divided into training cohort (1 506 cases) and validation cohort (646 cases) according to the ratio of 7∶3. Single-factor regression and multi-factor logistic regression were used to screen factors related to local lymph node metastasis in salivary gland MEC, with constructing of a nomogram. Calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate model performance in the validation cohort and the total cohort. Statistical tests were performed using SPSS (26.0) and R (4.3.0) software. Results: Multivariate logistic regression results showed that M stage [OR(95%CI):12.360(3.295-46.365), P=0.014], pathological grade Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ[OR(95%CI): 1.956(1.329-2.879), 9.654(6.309-14.772), 9.298(6.072-14.238), P<0.001], T staging T2, T3, T4[OR(95%CI): 1.706(0.932-3.124), 3.021(1.790-5.096), 3.311(1.925-5.695), P<0.001], and gender [OR(95%CI):0.759(0.593-0.972), P=0.029] were independent factors affecting local lymph node metastasis in salivary gland MEC. Through verification in the validation cohort and the total cohort, the AUC values were greater than 0.8, and the calibration curve was close to the perfect reference line, proving that the constructed nomogram model had good specificity and sensitivity for predicting local lymph node metastasis in salivary gland MEC. Conclusion: M stage, pathological grade, T stage, and gender are risk factors for predicting regional lymph node metastasis and the established-nomogram has good predictive performance for local lymph node metastasis in salivary gland MEC.