德国西尼罗河病毒爆发的时空明确流行模型:一种反向校准方法。

IF 3.8 4区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Oliver Chinonso Mbaoma, Stephanie Margarete Thomas, Carl Beierkuhnlein
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自 2018 年德国首次发现西尼罗河病毒(WNV)自传播以来,由于病媒发生和病原体传播的适宜环境的形成,西尼罗河病毒已在德国多个地区流行,并在继续传播。与气候变化相关的温度升高已被确定为温带地区蚊媒疾病的潜在驱动因素。在这种情况下,有必要开发一个空间和时间明确的模型来描述 WNV 在德国的传播动态。在这项研究中,我们根据环境和流行病学数据建立了一个基于过程的机理流行病学模型。蚊子和鸟类的功能特征被用来对我们的分区模型进行适当的参数化。气温、降水量和相对湿度是关键的气候影响因素,用于复制研究区域内支持蚊子数量和感染传播风险的基本生态位。我们采用了一种反向校准方法来优化参数选择。我们的模型能够生成时空明确的基本繁殖数(R0)图,显示德国各地 WNV 发生的动态,这与气候诱因的日均值偏差密切相关,表明气候变化对病媒传播疾病动态的影响。罗伯特-科赫研究所(Robert Koch Institute)提供的人类感染流行病学数据和弗里德里希-洛夫勒研究所(Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute)动物疾病信息系统(TSIS)收集的动物病例数据被用来验证模型模拟的传播率。我们的研究结果表明,随着病媒蚊子和宿主鸟类(尤其是短途候鸟)环境适宜性的迅速提高,西尼罗河病毒很可能会向德国西部地区传播。在 R0 地图上显示了 WNV 爆发的高风险地区(巴登-符腾堡、巴伐利亚、柏林、勃兰登堡、汉堡、北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚、莱茵兰-法尔茨、萨尔、萨克森-安哈尔特和萨克森)。这项研究为开发气候变化导致的病媒传染病预警系统提供了一条途径。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany: An Inversely Calibrated Approach.

Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany (WNV) in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the country and is continuing to spread due to the attainment of a suitable environment for vector occurrence and pathogen transmission. Increasing temperature associated with a changing climate has been identified as a potential driver of mosquito-borne disease in temperate regions. This scenario justifies the need for the development of a spatially and temporarily explicit model that describes the dynamics of WNV transmission in Germany. In this study, we developed a process-based mechanistic epidemic model driven by environmental and epidemiological data. Functional traits of mosquitoes and birds of interest were used to parameterize our compartmental model appropriately. Air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the key climatic forcings used to replicate the fundamental niche responsible for supporting mosquito population and infection transmission risks in the study area. An inverse calibration method was used to optimize our parameter selection. Our model was able to generate spatially and temporally explicit basic reproductive number (R0) maps showing dynamics of the WNV occurrences across Germany, which was strongly associated with the deviation from daily means of climatic forcings, signaling the impact of a changing climate in vector-borne disease dynamics. Epidemiological data for human infections sourced from Robert Koch Institute and animal cases collected from the Animal Diseases Information System (TSIS) of the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute were used to validate model-simulated transmission rates. From our results, it was evident that West Nile Virus is likely to spread towards the western parts of Germany with the rapid attainment of environmental suitability for vector mosquitoes and amplifying host birds, especially short-distance migratory birds. Locations with high risk of WNV outbreak (Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony) were shown on R0 maps. This study presents a path for developing an early warning system for vector-borne diseases driven by climate change.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
1.40%
发文量
57
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health is an esteemed international publication, offering a platform for peer-reviewed articles that drive advancements in global epidemiology and international health. Our mission is to shape global health policy by showcasing cutting-edge scholarship and innovative strategies.
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