经济投票行为：峰终增长规则

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-06-23 DOI:10.1111/ecpo.12299

Zekai Shen, Yiyang Jin, Yuanyuan Dong, Yazhou Liu

{"title":"经济投票行为：峰终增长规则","authors":"Zekai Shen, Yiyang Jin, Yuanyuan Dong, Yazhou Liu","doi":"10.1111/ecpo.12299","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960–2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"36 3","pages":"1537-1571"},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule\",\"authors\":\"Zekai Shen, Yiyang Jin, Yuanyuan Dong, Yazhou Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ecpo.12299\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960–2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":\"36 3\",\"pages\":\"1537-1571\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecpo.12299\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecpo.12299","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本文在经济投票中引入了峰终规则，发现选民在评估现任者时会关注经济增长的峰值和终值。来自 70 个国家 595 次选举（1960-2020 年）的跨国数据显示，任期内最高 GDP 增长率和选举年增长率的平均值会对现任者的得票率产生积极影响，其中峰值增长的影响更大。工具变量分析解决了内生性问题。异质性分析表明，受教育程度较低的选民更依赖于峰值结束规则。这些研究结果有助于理解选民的行为模式并改善民主问责制。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Economic voting behavior: The peak-end growth rule

This paper introduces the peak-end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross-national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960–2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less-educated voters rely more on the peak-end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.