利用集合建模预测佛得角(西北非)数据有限的海隆上脆弱海洋生态系统指标类群的分布情况

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Beatriz Vinha, Francisco Javier Murillo, Mia Schumacher, Thor H. Hansteen, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, Ellen Kenchington, Stefano Piraino, Covadonga Orejas, Veerle A. I. Huvenne
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的海山是显著的地质特征,具有重要的生态作用,可被视为脆弱海洋生态系统(VMEs)。由于许多深海区域在很大程度上仍未被勘探,因此调查海隆上脆弱海洋生态系统类群的出现具有挑战性。我们的研究旨在预测四种冷水珊瑚类群(CWC)的分布,它们是脆弱海洋生态系统(VMEs)的指标。地形变量采用多尺度方法从 100 米分辨率的水深网格中计算得出,物理海洋学数据来自 VIKING20X 模型,原始分辨率为 1/20°,这些数据被用作环境预测因子。采用了两种建模技术(广义相加模型和随机森林),并将单个模型的预测结果合并为最终的加权平均集合模型。通过交叉验证,使用不同的指标对模型的性能进行了验证。结果在大尺度上,地形走向是对所有 CWC 类群分布模型贡献最大的相对变量之一,这表明海山的水动力-地形相互作用可通过最大限度地增加食物供应而使 CWC 类群受益。然而,地形形态和海底盐度在更细尺度上的变化对特定 CWCs 的分布差异具有重要的推动作用。集合模型预测了所有海隆上存在的脆弱海洋生态系统分类群,并始终达到最高的性能指标,优于单个模型。然而,以变异系数衡量的模型外推法和不确定性很高,尤其是在海山上调查最少的地区,这突出表明需要在未来的调查中收集更多数据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data-limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)

Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data-limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)

Aim

Seamounts are conspicuous geological features with an important ecological role and can be considered vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Since many deep-sea regions remain largely unexplored, investigating the occurrence of VME taxa on seamounts is challenging. Our study aimed to predict the distribution of four cold-water coral (CWC) taxa, indicators for VMEs, in a region where occurrence data are scarce.

Location

Seamounts around the Cabo Verde archipelago (NW Africa).

Methods

We used species presence–absence data obtained from remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage collected during two research expeditions. Terrain variables calculated using a multiscale approach from a 100-m-resolution bathymetry grid, as well as physical oceanographical data from the VIKING20X model, at a native resolution of 1/20°, were used as environmental predictors. Two modelling techniques (generalized additive model and random forest) were employed and single-model predictions were combined into a final weighted-average ensemble model. Model performance was validated using different metrics through cross-validation.

Results

Terrain orientation, at broad scale, presented one of the highest relative variable contributions to the distribution models of all CWC taxa, suggesting that hydrodynamic–topographic interactions on the seamounts could benefit CWCs by maximizing food supply. However, changes at finer scales in terrain morphology and bottom salinity were important for driving differences in the distribution of specific CWCs. The ensemble model predicted the presence of VME taxa on all seamounts and consistently achieved the highest performance metrics, outperforming individual models. Nonetheless, model extrapolation and uncertainty, measured as the coefficient of variation, were high, particularly, in least surveyed areas across seamounts, highlighting the need to collect more data in future surveys.

Main Conclusions

Our study shows how data-poor areas may be assessed for the likelihood of VMEs and provides important information to guide future research in Cabo Verde, which is fundamental to advise ongoing conservation planning.

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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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