Beatriz Vinha, Francisco Javier Murillo, Mia Schumacher, Thor H. Hansteen, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, Ellen Kenchington, Stefano Piraino, Covadonga Orejas, Veerle A. I. Huvenne
{"title":"利用集合建模预测佛得角(西北非)数据有限的海隆上脆弱海洋生态系统指标类群的分布情况","authors":"Beatriz Vinha, Francisco Javier Murillo, Mia Schumacher, Thor H. Hansteen, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, Ellen Kenchington, Stefano Piraino, Covadonga Orejas, Veerle A. I. Huvenne","doi":"10.1111/ddi.13896","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Aim</h3>\n \n <p>Seamounts are conspicuous geological features with an important ecological role and can be considered vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Since many deep-sea regions remain largely unexplored, investigating the occurrence of VME taxa on seamounts is challenging. Our study aimed to predict the distribution of four cold-water coral (CWC) taxa, indicators for VMEs, in a region where occurrence data are scarce.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Location</h3>\n \n <p>Seamounts around the Cabo Verde archipelago (NW Africa).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>We used species presence–absence data obtained from remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage collected during two research expeditions. Terrain variables calculated using a multiscale approach from a 100-m-resolution bathymetry grid, as well as physical oceanographical data from the VIKING20X model, at a native resolution of 1/20°, were used as environmental predictors. Two modelling techniques (generalized additive model and random forest) were employed and single-model predictions were combined into a final weighted-average ensemble model. Model performance was validated using different metrics through cross-validation.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>Terrain orientation, at broad scale, presented one of the highest relative variable contributions to the distribution models of all CWC taxa, suggesting that hydrodynamic–topographic interactions on the seamounts could benefit CWCs by maximizing food supply. However, changes at finer scales in terrain morphology and bottom salinity were important for driving differences in the distribution of specific CWCs. The ensemble model predicted the presence of VME taxa on all seamounts and consistently achieved the highest performance metrics, outperforming individual models. Nonetheless, model extrapolation and uncertainty, measured as the coefficient of variation, were high, particularly, in least surveyed areas across seamounts, highlighting the need to collect more data in future surveys.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Our study shows how data-poor areas may be assessed for the likelihood of VMEs and provides important information to guide future research in Cabo Verde, which is fundamental to advise ongoing conservation planning.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13896","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data-limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)\",\"authors\":\"Beatriz Vinha, Francisco Javier Murillo, Mia Schumacher, Thor H. Hansteen, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, Ellen Kenchington, Stefano Piraino, Covadonga Orejas, Veerle A. I. Huvenne\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ddi.13896\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Aim</h3>\\n \\n <p>Seamounts are conspicuous geological features with an important ecological role and can be considered vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Since many deep-sea regions remain largely unexplored, investigating the occurrence of VME taxa on seamounts is challenging. Our study aimed to predict the distribution of four cold-water coral (CWC) taxa, indicators for VMEs, in a region where occurrence data are scarce.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Location</h3>\\n \\n <p>Seamounts around the Cabo Verde archipelago (NW Africa).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>We used species presence–absence data obtained from remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage collected during two research expeditions. Terrain variables calculated using a multiscale approach from a 100-m-resolution bathymetry grid, as well as physical oceanographical data from the VIKING20X model, at a native resolution of 1/20°, were used as environmental predictors. Two modelling techniques (generalized additive model and random forest) were employed and single-model predictions were combined into a final weighted-average ensemble model. Model performance was validated using different metrics through cross-validation.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>Terrain orientation, at broad scale, presented one of the highest relative variable contributions to the distribution models of all CWC taxa, suggesting that hydrodynamic–topographic interactions on the seamounts could benefit CWCs by maximizing food supply. However, changes at finer scales in terrain morphology and bottom salinity were important for driving differences in the distribution of specific CWCs. The ensemble model predicted the presence of VME taxa on all seamounts and consistently achieved the highest performance metrics, outperforming individual models. Nonetheless, model extrapolation and uncertainty, measured as the coefficient of variation, were high, particularly, in least surveyed areas across seamounts, highlighting the need to collect more data in future surveys.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Our study shows how data-poor areas may be assessed for the likelihood of VMEs and provides important information to guide future research in Cabo Verde, which is fundamental to advise ongoing conservation planning.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51018,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Diversity and Distributions\",\"volume\":\"30 8\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13896\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Diversity and Distributions\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.13896\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Diversity and Distributions","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.13896","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Ensemble modelling to predict the distribution of vulnerable marine ecosystems indicator taxa on data-limited seamounts of Cabo Verde (NW Africa)
Aim
Seamounts are conspicuous geological features with an important ecological role and can be considered vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Since many deep-sea regions remain largely unexplored, investigating the occurrence of VME taxa on seamounts is challenging. Our study aimed to predict the distribution of four cold-water coral (CWC) taxa, indicators for VMEs, in a region where occurrence data are scarce.
Location
Seamounts around the Cabo Verde archipelago (NW Africa).
Methods
We used species presence–absence data obtained from remotely operated vehicle (ROV) footage collected during two research expeditions. Terrain variables calculated using a multiscale approach from a 100-m-resolution bathymetry grid, as well as physical oceanographical data from the VIKING20X model, at a native resolution of 1/20°, were used as environmental predictors. Two modelling techniques (generalized additive model and random forest) were employed and single-model predictions were combined into a final weighted-average ensemble model. Model performance was validated using different metrics through cross-validation.
Results
Terrain orientation, at broad scale, presented one of the highest relative variable contributions to the distribution models of all CWC taxa, suggesting that hydrodynamic–topographic interactions on the seamounts could benefit CWCs by maximizing food supply. However, changes at finer scales in terrain morphology and bottom salinity were important for driving differences in the distribution of specific CWCs. The ensemble model predicted the presence of VME taxa on all seamounts and consistently achieved the highest performance metrics, outperforming individual models. Nonetheless, model extrapolation and uncertainty, measured as the coefficient of variation, were high, particularly, in least surveyed areas across seamounts, highlighting the need to collect more data in future surveys.
Main Conclusions
Our study shows how data-poor areas may be assessed for the likelihood of VMEs and provides important information to guide future research in Cabo Verde, which is fundamental to advise ongoing conservation planning.
期刊介绍:
Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.