Romain Silhol, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Nirali Soni, Arlette Simo Fotso, Nicolas Rouveau, Anthony Vautier, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Kouassi Noël N'Guessan, Younoussa Sidibé, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Papa Alioune Gueye, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Christinah Mukandavire, Peter Vickerman, Abdelaye Keita, Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, Eboi Ehui, Joseph Larmarange, Marie-Claude Boily
{"title":"在科特迪瓦、马里和塞内加尔，过去的艾滋病毒干预措施和诊断差距对新感染艾滋病毒、艾滋病毒传播和艾滋病毒相关死亡的影响。","authors":"Romain Silhol, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Nirali Soni, Arlette Simo Fotso, Nicolas Rouveau, Anthony Vautier, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Kouassi Noël N'Guessan, Younoussa Sidibé, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Papa Alioune Gueye, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Christinah Mukandavire, Peter Vickerman, Abdelaye Keita, Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, Eboi Ehui, Joseph Larmarange, Marie-Claude Boily","doi":"10.1097/QAD.0000000000003974","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To estimate the epidemiological impact of past HIV interventions and the magnitude and contribution of undiagnosed HIV among different risk groups on new HIV acquisitions in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>HIV transmission dynamic models among the overall population and key populations [female sex workers (FSW), their clients, and MSM].</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Models were independently parameterized and calibrated for each set of country-specific demographic, behavioural, and epidemiological data. We estimated the fraction of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 averted by condom use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake among key populations and non-key populations, the direct and indirect contribution of specific groups to new infections [transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] over 2012-2021 due to prevention gaps, and the distribution of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWH) by risk group in January 2022 and their tPAF over 2022-2031.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Condom use and ART may have averted 81-88% of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 across countries, mostly due to condom use by key population. The tPAF of all key populations combined over 2012-2021 varied between 27% (Côte d'Ivoire) and 79% (Senegal). Male key populations (clients of FSW and MSM) contributed most to new infections (>60% in Mali and Senegal) owing to their higher HIV prevalence and larger prevention gaps. In 2022, men represented 56% of all PWH with an undiagnosed infection in Côte d'Ivoire (male key populations = 15%), 46% in Mali (male key populations = 23%), and 69% in Senegal (male key populations = 55%). If HIV testing and ART initiation rates remain at current levels, 20% of new HIV infections could be due to undiagnosed key populations living with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire over 2022-2031, 53% in Mali, and 65% in Senegal.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Substantial HIV diagnosis gaps remain in Western Africa, especially among male key populations. Addressing these gaps is key to impacting the HIV epidemics in the region and achieving the goal of ending AIDS by 2030.</p>","PeriodicalId":7502,"journal":{"name":"AIDS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11356671/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The impact of past HIV interventions and diagnosis gaps on new HIV acquisitions, transmissions, and HIV-related deaths in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal.\",\"authors\":\"Romain Silhol, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Nirali Soni, Arlette Simo Fotso, Nicolas Rouveau, Anthony Vautier, Clémence Doumenc-Aïdara, Olivier Geoffroy, Kouassi Noël N'Guessan, Younoussa Sidibé, Odé Kanku Kabemba, Papa Alioune Gueye, Pauline Dama Ndeye, Christinah Mukandavire, Peter Vickerman, Abdelaye Keita, Cheikh Tidiane Ndour, Eboi Ehui, Joseph Larmarange, Marie-Claude Boily\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/QAD.0000000000003974\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To estimate the epidemiological impact of past HIV interventions and the magnitude and contribution of undiagnosed HIV among different risk groups on new HIV acquisitions in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>HIV transmission dynamic models among the overall population and key populations [female sex workers (FSW), their clients, and MSM].</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Models were independently parameterized and calibrated for each set of country-specific demographic, behavioural, and epidemiological data. We estimated the fraction of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 averted by condom use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake among key populations and non-key populations, the direct and indirect contribution of specific groups to new infections [transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] over 2012-2021 due to prevention gaps, and the distribution of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWH) by risk group in January 2022 and their tPAF over 2022-2031.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Condom use and ART may have averted 81-88% of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 across countries, mostly due to condom use by key population. The tPAF of all key populations combined over 2012-2021 varied between 27% (Côte d'Ivoire) and 79% (Senegal). Male key populations (clients of FSW and MSM) contributed most to new infections (>60% in Mali and Senegal) owing to their higher HIV prevalence and larger prevention gaps. In 2022, men represented 56% of all PWH with an undiagnosed infection in Côte d'Ivoire (male key populations = 15%), 46% in Mali (male key populations = 23%), and 69% in Senegal (male key populations = 55%). If HIV testing and ART initiation rates remain at current levels, 20% of new HIV infections could be due to undiagnosed key populations living with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire over 2022-2031, 53% in Mali, and 65% in Senegal.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Substantial HIV diagnosis gaps remain in Western Africa, especially among male key populations. Addressing these gaps is key to impacting the HIV epidemics in the region and achieving the goal of ending AIDS by 2030.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7502,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"AIDS\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11356671/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"AIDS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003974\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/7/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIDS","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003974","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/7/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of past HIV interventions and diagnosis gaps on new HIV acquisitions, transmissions, and HIV-related deaths in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal.
Objectives: To estimate the epidemiological impact of past HIV interventions and the magnitude and contribution of undiagnosed HIV among different risk groups on new HIV acquisitions in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal.
Design: HIV transmission dynamic models among the overall population and key populations [female sex workers (FSW), their clients, and MSM].
Methods: Models were independently parameterized and calibrated for each set of country-specific demographic, behavioural, and epidemiological data. We estimated the fraction of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 averted by condom use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake among key populations and non-key populations, the direct and indirect contribution of specific groups to new infections [transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] over 2012-2021 due to prevention gaps, and the distribution of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWH) by risk group in January 2022 and their tPAF over 2022-2031.
Results: Condom use and ART may have averted 81-88% of new HIV infections over 2012-2021 across countries, mostly due to condom use by key population. The tPAF of all key populations combined over 2012-2021 varied between 27% (Côte d'Ivoire) and 79% (Senegal). Male key populations (clients of FSW and MSM) contributed most to new infections (>60% in Mali and Senegal) owing to their higher HIV prevalence and larger prevention gaps. In 2022, men represented 56% of all PWH with an undiagnosed infection in Côte d'Ivoire (male key populations = 15%), 46% in Mali (male key populations = 23%), and 69% in Senegal (male key populations = 55%). If HIV testing and ART initiation rates remain at current levels, 20% of new HIV infections could be due to undiagnosed key populations living with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire over 2022-2031, 53% in Mali, and 65% in Senegal.
Conclusion: Substantial HIV diagnosis gaps remain in Western Africa, especially among male key populations. Addressing these gaps is key to impacting the HIV epidemics in the region and achieving the goal of ending AIDS by 2030.
期刊介绍：
Publishing the very latest ground breaking research on HIV and AIDS. Read by all the top clinicians and researchers, AIDS has the highest impact of all AIDS-related journals. With 18 issues per year, AIDS guarantees the authoritative presentation of significant advances. The Editors, themselves noted international experts who know the demands of your work, are committed to making AIDS the most distinguished and innovative journal in the field. Submitted articles undergo a preliminary review by the editor. Some articles may be returned to authors without further consideration. Those being considered for publication will undergo further assessment and peer-review by the editors and those invited to do so from a reviewer pool.
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