{"title":"如果东太平洋和中太平洋降温趋势逆转,美国西南部近期可能出现湿润天气","authors":"Marc J. Alessi, Maria Rugenstein","doi":"10.1029/2024GL108292","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Near-term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL108292","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Potential Near-Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses\",\"authors\":\"Marc J. Alessi, Maria Rugenstein\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2024GL108292\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Near-term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12523,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GL108292\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL108292\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL108292","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Potential Near-Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses
Near-term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models.
期刊介绍:
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.