Spatio-Temporal Variations of Habitat Quality Under 8 SSP-RCP Scenarios in China

Habitat quality is a key expression of ecosystem ability and the basis for effective species conservation and regional ecological environment improvement. However, most studies have focused on assessing habitat quality over historical periods, ignoring the influence of coupled future development paths and climate change. The present study addresses this issue by developing a spatial-temporal variation analysis framework for assessing habitat quality in China, which integrates the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model with eight Earth system coupled scenarios (SSP-RCP). The results showed that from 2020 to 2100, and under five scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0, SSP5-3.4, and SSP5-8.5), habitat quality was generally stable and high, while under three scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4), it decreased. The SSP2-4.5 scenario was significantly better than the SSP4-3.4 scenario. In all scenarios, the influences of different development patterns on China's ecologically fragile areas were obvious and serious. In 2030 and 2060, the spatial distribution patterns of habitat degradation and habitat quality had similar characteristics. High habitat degradation values were mostly distributed east of the Heihe-Tengchong Line, while low values were mainly distributed in the arid zone. The mean habitat degradation ranged between 0.0226 and 0.0302, and the degradation degree was relatively light. The habitat quality index mean was 0.5120–0.5376, indicating that the overall habitat quality was at the medium level. This study provides a potential ecological protection baseline for China based on habitat protection and provides an important reference for China's sustainable development.