Evolving Subduction Zone Thermal Structure Drives Extensive Forearc Mantle Wedge Hydration

Hydration of the subduction zone forearc mantle wedge influences the downdip distribution of seismicity, the availability of fluids for arc magmatism, and Earth's long term water cycle. Reconstructions of present-day subduction zone thermal structures using time-invariant geodynamic models indicate relatively minor hydration, in contrast to many geophysical and geologic observations. We pair a dynamic, time-evolving thermal model of subduction with phase equilibria modeling to investigate how variations in slab and forearc temperatures from subduction infancy through to maturity contribute to mantle wedge hydration. We find that thermal state during the intermediate period of subduction, as the slab freely descends through the upper mantle, promotes extensive forearc wedge hydration. In contrast, during early subduction the forearc is too hot to stabilize hydrous minerals in the mantle wedge, while during mature subduction, slab dehydration dominantly occurs beyond forearc depths. In our models, maximum wedge hydration during the intermediate phase is 60%–70% and falls to 20%–40% as quasi-steady state conditions are approached during maturity. Comparison to global forearc H₂O capacities reveals that consideration of thermal evolution leads to an order of magnitude increase in estimates for current extents of wedge hydration and provides better agreement with geophysical observations. This suggests that hydration of the forearc mantle wedge represents a potential vast reservoir of H₂O, on the order of 3.4–5.9 × 10²¹ g globally. These results provide novel insights into the subduction zone water cycle, new constraints on the mantle wedge as a fluid reservoir and are useful to better understand geologic processes at plate margins.