The effects of municipal waste reduction and recycling policies on the economic feasibility of landfill gas generation

Landfill gas (LFG) projects for energy production have several advantages. However, to avoid the impossibility of these projects, it is crucial to assess the long-term effects of public policies that promote the diversion of waste disposed of in landfills. Therefore, the objective of the present work is to evaluate the effects of the application of public policies, which influence recycling, reduction of generation, and inadequate disposal reduction of municipal solid waste (MSW), in the potential of electricity generation in landfills, as well as to evaluate its effect on economic viability. A System Dynamics model was employed to estimate methane production while considering variations in the quantity and make-up of MSW over time. The results showed that the scenarios with the greatest potential for methane generation and electricity were those with less diversion of biodegradable waste. Furthermore, the economic performance demonstrated that none of the possibilities are viable except with carbon credits extra income. However, all scenarios could become viable by increasing the energy sale rate above 93.2 USD.MWh⁻¹. Another option calls for lowering the discount rate through government incentives to a percentage below 10 % and an investment cost below 77 % of the original value. These elements aid in long-term planning and give decision-makers a future vision of the impact of these policies.