Vesa-Pekka Parkatti , Antti Suominen , Olli Tahvonen , Pekka Malo
{"title":"评估北方轮伐林碳汇的经济效益和成本","authors":"Vesa-Pekka Parkatti , Antti Suominen , Olli Tahvonen , Pekka Malo","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103249","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the optimal enhancement of forest carbon sinks <em>via</em> forest management changes in boreal even-aged Scots pine (<em>Pinus sylvestris</em>) forests. The economic–ecological stand-level optimization model integrates a statistical–empirical individual-tree growth model with a comprehensive model for carbon in living trees, wood products, and soil. We use reinforcement learning to optimize for rotation length, thinning timing, and thinning intensity. Carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) pricing has a notable effect on the optimal solutions and on the corresponding CO<sub>2</sub> flows and carbon stocks. Under a 1% interest rate, increasing the CO<sub>2</sub> price from zero to €100 increases the discounted carbon sink by 83% and the total steady-state carbon stock by 122%. Increasing the CO<sub>2</sub> price decreases the economic significance of thinning, and, with a high enough CO<sub>2</sub> price, the stand is harvested only with clear-cuts, which are further postponed by CO<sub>2</sub> price increases. Decreasing stand volume or total C stock cannot be taken as a sign of an overly mature stand. Depending on the CO<sub>2</sub> price and interest rate, the economic benefit–cost ratio of additional carbon sinks <em>via</em> forest management changes varies between 1.9 and 3.7. Overall, the results reveal a high potential to increase the role of boreal managed forests in climate change mitigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001035/pdfft?md5=2f225c800cdcac6c9bbe4d689bc23a9a&pid=1-s2.0-S1389934124001035-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing economic benefits and costs of carbon sinks in boreal rotation forestry\",\"authors\":\"Vesa-Pekka Parkatti , Antti Suominen , Olli Tahvonen , Pekka Malo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103249\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We study the optimal enhancement of forest carbon sinks <em>via</em> forest management changes in boreal even-aged Scots pine (<em>Pinus sylvestris</em>) forests. The economic–ecological stand-level optimization model integrates a statistical–empirical individual-tree growth model with a comprehensive model for carbon in living trees, wood products, and soil. We use reinforcement learning to optimize for rotation length, thinning timing, and thinning intensity. Carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) pricing has a notable effect on the optimal solutions and on the corresponding CO<sub>2</sub> flows and carbon stocks. Under a 1% interest rate, increasing the CO<sub>2</sub> price from zero to €100 increases the discounted carbon sink by 83% and the total steady-state carbon stock by 122%. Increasing the CO<sub>2</sub> price decreases the economic significance of thinning, and, with a high enough CO<sub>2</sub> price, the stand is harvested only with clear-cuts, which are further postponed by CO<sub>2</sub> price increases. Decreasing stand volume or total C stock cannot be taken as a sign of an overly mature stand. Depending on the CO<sub>2</sub> price and interest rate, the economic benefit–cost ratio of additional carbon sinks <em>via</em> forest management changes varies between 1.9 and 3.7. Overall, the results reveal a high potential to increase the role of boreal managed forests in climate change mitigation.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12451,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Forest Policy and Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001035/pdfft?md5=2f225c800cdcac6c9bbe4d689bc23a9a&pid=1-s2.0-S1389934124001035-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Forest Policy and Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001035\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Forest Policy and Economics","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001035","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing economic benefits and costs of carbon sinks in boreal rotation forestry
We study the optimal enhancement of forest carbon sinks via forest management changes in boreal even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests. The economic–ecological stand-level optimization model integrates a statistical–empirical individual-tree growth model with a comprehensive model for carbon in living trees, wood products, and soil. We use reinforcement learning to optimize for rotation length, thinning timing, and thinning intensity. Carbon dioxide (CO2) pricing has a notable effect on the optimal solutions and on the corresponding CO2 flows and carbon stocks. Under a 1% interest rate, increasing the CO2 price from zero to €100 increases the discounted carbon sink by 83% and the total steady-state carbon stock by 122%. Increasing the CO2 price decreases the economic significance of thinning, and, with a high enough CO2 price, the stand is harvested only with clear-cuts, which are further postponed by CO2 price increases. Decreasing stand volume or total C stock cannot be taken as a sign of an overly mature stand. Depending on the CO2 price and interest rate, the economic benefit–cost ratio of additional carbon sinks via forest management changes varies between 1.9 and 3.7. Overall, the results reveal a high potential to increase the role of boreal managed forests in climate change mitigation.
期刊介绍:
Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.