咸水河小江断裂系统中段应力演化和地震力矩预算数值模拟:对地震灾害评估的影响

IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Luyuan Huang , Shi Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

咸水河-萧江断裂系统(CSXXFS)的中心地段与人口稠密地区相交,近两个世纪以来一直处于地震静止状态,没有发生过 M≥7 级的强震。因此,对 CSXXFS 进行全面的地震灾害评估是减灾工作的重要组成部分。为此,我们开发了一个有限元模型,该模型综合了地震间变形约束下的异质力学特性,以估算 CSXXFS 内部的断层锁定深度。随后,我们对地震力矩预算和库仑应力变化进行了分析,以全面评估 CSXXFS 附近的地震危害。我们的研究结果表明,咸水河-小江断层系统(XXFS)的总体平均锁定深度为 10 千米,大凉山断层(DLSF)的总体平均锁定深度为 15 千米。发震深度与断层锁定深度之间的差异表明,在 CSXXFS 的某些地段存在深蠕变。此外,历史上的地震引起了应力调制,导致 CSXXFS 不同地段的潜在地震被推迟或提前。具体而言,则木河断层(ZMHF)全段、安宁河断层(ANHF)北段、北大梁山断层(NDLSF)石碾-岳西段南段和南大梁山断层(SDLSF)最南端的未来地震危险性被推迟。相反,由于地震引起的正应力,安汉断层绵宁-西昌段和大凉山断层大部分地区的潜在地震已经提前。我们对地震预算的估算表明,ANHF、ZMHF、NDLSF 和 SDLSF 分别有可能发生 M6.9、M7.3、M7.4 和 M7.1 级地震。通过这种综合地震灾害分析,我们强调了在该地区密切评估潜在风险和实施适当减灾战略的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Numerical simulation of stress evolution and seismic moment budget along the central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system: Implications for seismic hazard assessment

The central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (CSXXFS), which intersect densely populated areas, have remained seismically quiet without any strong earthquakes of M ≥ 7 for nearly two centuries. As such, conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the CSXXFS serves as a crucial component of disaster mitigation efforts. To achieve this, we developed a finite element model that integrates heterogeneous mechanical properties constrained by interseismic deformation to estimate the fault locking depths within the CSXXFS. Subsequently, we performed an analysis of the seismic moment budget and Coulomb stress change to comprehensively assess the seismic hazards in the vicinity of the CSXXFS. Our findings revealed an overall average locking depth of 10 km for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS) and 15 km for the Daliangshan fault (DLSF). The discrepancy between the seismogenic depth and the fault locking depth indicates the presence of deep creep in certain segments of the CSXXFS. Additionally, historical earthquakes have caused stress modulation, resulting in potential earthquakes being either delayed or advanced in different segments of the CSXXFS. Specifically, the future seismic hazard is delayed in the entire Zemuhe fault (ZMHF), the northern segment of the Anninghe fault (ANHF), the southern section of the Shimian-Yuexi segment of the north Daliangshan fault (NDLSF), and the southernmost part of the south Daliangshan fault (SDLSF). Conversely, the potential earthquake on the Mianning-Xichang segment of the ANHF and the majority of the DLSF have been advanced due to positive earthquake-induced stress. Our estimation of the seismic budget suggests that the ANHF, ZMHF, NDLSF, and SDLSF have the potential to host earthquakes with magnitudes of M 6.9, M 7.3, M 7.4, and M 7.1, respectively. By adopting this integrated seismic hazard analysis, we highlight the necessity of closely evaluating potential risks and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies in this area.

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来源期刊
Tectonophysics
Tectonophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
6.90%
发文量
300
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: The prime focus of Tectonophysics will be high-impact original research and reviews in the fields of kinematics, structure, composition, and dynamics of the solid arth at all scales. Tectonophysics particularly encourages submission of papers based on the integration of a multitude of geophysical, geological, geochemical, geodynamic, and geotectonic methods
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