{"title":"咸水河小江断裂系统中段应力演化和地震力矩预算数值模拟:对地震灾害评估的影响","authors":"Luyuan Huang , Shi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tecto.2024.230394","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (CSXXFS), which intersect densely populated areas, have remained seismically quiet without any strong earthquakes of M ≥ 7 for nearly two centuries. As such, conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the CSXXFS serves as a crucial component of disaster mitigation efforts. To achieve this, we developed a finite element model that integrates heterogeneous mechanical properties constrained by interseismic deformation to estimate the fault locking depths within the CSXXFS. Subsequently, we performed an analysis of the seismic moment budget and Coulomb stress change to comprehensively assess the seismic hazards in the vicinity of the CSXXFS. Our findings revealed an overall average locking depth of 10 km for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS) and 15 km for the Daliangshan fault (DLSF). The discrepancy between the seismogenic depth and the fault locking depth indicates the presence of deep creep in certain segments of the CSXXFS. Additionally, historical earthquakes have caused stress modulation, resulting in potential earthquakes being either delayed or advanced in different segments of the CSXXFS. Specifically, the future seismic hazard is delayed in the entire Zemuhe fault (ZMHF), the northern segment of the Anninghe fault (ANHF), the southern section of the Shimian-Yuexi segment of the north Daliangshan fault (NDLSF), and the southernmost part of the south Daliangshan fault (SDLSF). Conversely, the potential earthquake on the Mianning-Xichang segment of the ANHF and the majority of the DLSF have been advanced due to positive earthquake-induced stress. Our estimation of the seismic budget suggests that the ANHF, ZMHF, NDLSF, and SDLSF have the potential to host earthquakes with magnitudes of M 6.9, M 7.3, M 7.4, and M 7.1, respectively. By adopting this integrated seismic hazard analysis, we highlight the necessity of closely evaluating potential risks and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies in this area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":22257,"journal":{"name":"Tectonophysics","volume":"884 ","pages":"Article 230394"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Numerical simulation of stress evolution and seismic moment budget along the central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system: Implications for seismic hazard assessment\",\"authors\":\"Luyuan Huang , Shi Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tecto.2024.230394\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (CSXXFS), which intersect densely populated areas, have remained seismically quiet without any strong earthquakes of M ≥ 7 for nearly two centuries. As such, conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the CSXXFS serves as a crucial component of disaster mitigation efforts. To achieve this, we developed a finite element model that integrates heterogeneous mechanical properties constrained by interseismic deformation to estimate the fault locking depths within the CSXXFS. Subsequently, we performed an analysis of the seismic moment budget and Coulomb stress change to comprehensively assess the seismic hazards in the vicinity of the CSXXFS. Our findings revealed an overall average locking depth of 10 km for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS) and 15 km for the Daliangshan fault (DLSF). The discrepancy between the seismogenic depth and the fault locking depth indicates the presence of deep creep in certain segments of the CSXXFS. Additionally, historical earthquakes have caused stress modulation, resulting in potential earthquakes being either delayed or advanced in different segments of the CSXXFS. Specifically, the future seismic hazard is delayed in the entire Zemuhe fault (ZMHF), the northern segment of the Anninghe fault (ANHF), the southern section of the Shimian-Yuexi segment of the north Daliangshan fault (NDLSF), and the southernmost part of the south Daliangshan fault (SDLSF). Conversely, the potential earthquake on the Mianning-Xichang segment of the ANHF and the majority of the DLSF have been advanced due to positive earthquake-induced stress. Our estimation of the seismic budget suggests that the ANHF, ZMHF, NDLSF, and SDLSF have the potential to host earthquakes with magnitudes of M 6.9, M 7.3, M 7.4, and M 7.1, respectively. By adopting this integrated seismic hazard analysis, we highlight the necessity of closely evaluating potential risks and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies in this area.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":22257,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tectonophysics\",\"volume\":\"884 \",\"pages\":\"Article 230394\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tectonophysics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040195124001963\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tectonophysics","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040195124001963","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Numerical simulation of stress evolution and seismic moment budget along the central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system: Implications for seismic hazard assessment
The central segments of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (CSXXFS), which intersect densely populated areas, have remained seismically quiet without any strong earthquakes of M ≥ 7 for nearly two centuries. As such, conducting a comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the CSXXFS serves as a crucial component of disaster mitigation efforts. To achieve this, we developed a finite element model that integrates heterogeneous mechanical properties constrained by interseismic deformation to estimate the fault locking depths within the CSXXFS. Subsequently, we performed an analysis of the seismic moment budget and Coulomb stress change to comprehensively assess the seismic hazards in the vicinity of the CSXXFS. Our findings revealed an overall average locking depth of 10 km for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system (XXFS) and 15 km for the Daliangshan fault (DLSF). The discrepancy between the seismogenic depth and the fault locking depth indicates the presence of deep creep in certain segments of the CSXXFS. Additionally, historical earthquakes have caused stress modulation, resulting in potential earthquakes being either delayed or advanced in different segments of the CSXXFS. Specifically, the future seismic hazard is delayed in the entire Zemuhe fault (ZMHF), the northern segment of the Anninghe fault (ANHF), the southern section of the Shimian-Yuexi segment of the north Daliangshan fault (NDLSF), and the southernmost part of the south Daliangshan fault (SDLSF). Conversely, the potential earthquake on the Mianning-Xichang segment of the ANHF and the majority of the DLSF have been advanced due to positive earthquake-induced stress. Our estimation of the seismic budget suggests that the ANHF, ZMHF, NDLSF, and SDLSF have the potential to host earthquakes with magnitudes of M 6.9, M 7.3, M 7.4, and M 7.1, respectively. By adopting this integrated seismic hazard analysis, we highlight the necessity of closely evaluating potential risks and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies in this area.
期刊介绍:
The prime focus of Tectonophysics will be high-impact original research and reviews in the fields of kinematics, structure, composition, and dynamics of the solid arth at all scales. Tectonophysics particularly encourages submission of papers based on the integration of a multitude of geophysical, geological, geochemical, geodynamic, and geotectonic methods