{"title":"风险与运气的形而上学","authors":"Jaakko Hirvelä","doi":"10.1111/nous.12516","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.","PeriodicalId":501006,"journal":{"name":"Noûs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Metaphysics of risk and luck\",\"authors\":\"Jaakko Hirvelä\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/nous.12516\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501006,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Noûs\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Noûs\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12516\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Noûs","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12516","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
根据 "运气 "的模态解释,如果 p 在实际世界中为真,而在附近的一系列世界中为假,那么 p 就是一个运气问题。根据风险的模态解释,如果p在某个近似世界中为真,那么p就是有风险的。我认为,关于运气和风险的模态解释并不能很好地融合在一起。这两种观点都会导致p既可能是风险最大的,也可能是运气最大的,但没有什么东西既是运气最大的,也是风险最大的。我提出了一种新的风险理论,它与运气的模态论述相吻合,并证明它在外延和形式上都优于现有的建议。
According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that p if p is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that p if p is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that p can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.