[Development of a Prognostic Model for Overall Survival Adult Patients with Core Binding Factor Acute Myeloid Leukaemia].

Objective: To analyze the factors affecting overall survival (OS) of adult patients with core-binding factor acute myeloid leukemia (CBF-AML) and establish a prediction model.

Methods: A total of 216 newly diagnosed patients with CBF-AML in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from May 2015 to July 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The 216 CBF-AML patients were divided into the training and the validation cohort at 7∶3 ratio. The Cox regression model was used to analyze the clinical factors affecting OS. Stepwise regression was used to establish the optimal model and the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model performance.

Results: Age(≥55 years old), peripheral blood blast(≥80%), fusion gene (AML1-ETO), KIT mutations were identified as independent adverse factors for OS. The area under the ROC curve at 3-year was 0.772 and 0.722 in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. The predicted value of the calibration curve is in good agreement with the measured value. DCA shows that this model performs better than a single factor.

Conclusion: This prediction model is simple and feasible, and can effectively predict the OS of CBF-AML, and provide a basis for treatment decision.