Patrick M Murphy, Yunus Kinkhabwala, Bethany Kwoka, Yanelli Núñnez, Annelise Dillon, Audrey Amezcua-Smith, Elena Krieger
{"title":"加利福尼亚州太阳能+储能社区恢复中心的建模和设计。","authors":"Patrick M Murphy, Yunus Kinkhabwala, Bethany Kwoka, Yanelli Núñnez, Annelise Dillon, Audrey Amezcua-Smith, Elena Krieger","doi":"10.1111/risa.14341","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Distributed clean, reliable energy resources like solar plus battery storage (solar + storage) can reduce harmful emissions while supporting resilience. Solar + storage-powered resilience hubs provide energy for critical services during disasters while increasing human adaptive capacity year round. We studied where utility rates, local climate, and historical injustice make solar + storage resilience hubs more valuable and more challenging. We modeled the economic and climate impacts of outfitting candidate hub sites across California with solar + storage for everyday operations and identified designs and costs required to withstand a range of outages considering weather impacts on energy needs and availability. We integrated sociodemographic data to prioritize the siting of resilience hubs, to focus potential policy and funding priorities on regions where solar + storage for resilience hubs is hard or expensive, and where populations are most in need. We identified almost 20,000 candidate buildings with more than 8 GW of total rooftop solar potential capable of reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 5 million tons per year while providing energy for community resilience. Hub capacity for one of the most challenging missions-providing emergency shelter during a power outage and smoke event-could have a statewide average lifetime cost of less than $2000 per seat. We identified regional challenges including insufficient rooftop solar capacity in cities, low sunlight in northern coastal California, and high costs driven by utility rate structures in Sacramento and the Imperial Valley. Results show that rates and net metering rules that incentivize solar + storage during everyday operations decrease resilience costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling and design of solar + storage-powered community resilience hubs across California.\",\"authors\":\"Patrick M Murphy, Yunus Kinkhabwala, Bethany Kwoka, Yanelli Núñnez, Annelise Dillon, Audrey Amezcua-Smith, Elena Krieger\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/risa.14341\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Distributed clean, reliable energy resources like solar plus battery storage (solar + storage) can reduce harmful emissions while supporting resilience. Solar + storage-powered resilience hubs provide energy for critical services during disasters while increasing human adaptive capacity year round. We studied where utility rates, local climate, and historical injustice make solar + storage resilience hubs more valuable and more challenging. We modeled the economic and climate impacts of outfitting candidate hub sites across California with solar + storage for everyday operations and identified designs and costs required to withstand a range of outages considering weather impacts on energy needs and availability. We integrated sociodemographic data to prioritize the siting of resilience hubs, to focus potential policy and funding priorities on regions where solar + storage for resilience hubs is hard or expensive, and where populations are most in need. We identified almost 20,000 candidate buildings with more than 8 GW of total rooftop solar potential capable of reducing CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 5 million tons per year while providing energy for community resilience. Hub capacity for one of the most challenging missions-providing emergency shelter during a power outage and smoke event-could have a statewide average lifetime cost of less than $2000 per seat. We identified regional challenges including insufficient rooftop solar capacity in cities, low sunlight in northern coastal California, and high costs driven by utility rate structures in Sacramento and the Imperial Valley. Results show that rates and net metering rules that incentivize solar + storage during everyday operations decrease resilience costs.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21472,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Risk Analysis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Risk Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14341\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Risk Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14341","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling and design of solar + storage-powered community resilience hubs across California.
Distributed clean, reliable energy resources like solar plus battery storage (solar + storage) can reduce harmful emissions while supporting resilience. Solar + storage-powered resilience hubs provide energy for critical services during disasters while increasing human adaptive capacity year round. We studied where utility rates, local climate, and historical injustice make solar + storage resilience hubs more valuable and more challenging. We modeled the economic and climate impacts of outfitting candidate hub sites across California with solar + storage for everyday operations and identified designs and costs required to withstand a range of outages considering weather impacts on energy needs and availability. We integrated sociodemographic data to prioritize the siting of resilience hubs, to focus potential policy and funding priorities on regions where solar + storage for resilience hubs is hard or expensive, and where populations are most in need. We identified almost 20,000 candidate buildings with more than 8 GW of total rooftop solar potential capable of reducing CO2 emissions by 5 million tons per year while providing energy for community resilience. Hub capacity for one of the most challenging missions-providing emergency shelter during a power outage and smoke event-could have a statewide average lifetime cost of less than $2000 per seat. We identified regional challenges including insufficient rooftop solar capacity in cities, low sunlight in northern coastal California, and high costs driven by utility rate structures in Sacramento and the Imperial Valley. Results show that rates and net metering rules that incentivize solar + storage during everyday operations decrease resilience costs.
期刊介绍:
Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include:
• Human health and safety risks
• Microbial risks
• Engineering
• Mathematical modeling
• Risk characterization
• Risk communication
• Risk management and decision-making
• Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics
• Laws and regulatory policy
• Ecological risks.