{"title":"[不拒绝零假设与声明零假设为真之间的巨大差异]。","authors":"C Carazo-Díaz, L Prieto-Valiente","doi":"10.33588/rn.7901.2024090","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Assuming that a hypothesis is true because insufficient evidence has been found to reject it is a very common error when interpreting the p-value of a test in biomedical research. For example, a value of p = 0.28 obviously does not mean the null hypothesis should be ruled out, but if we understand what it means (which is not a mathematical issue, but instead a purely logical one) that it is equally obvious that it cannot be stated that it is true. If the samples in a comparison of a new drug with an old one show that the new one has a higher healing percentage and the p-value of the test is 0.0004, for example, the scientific community concludes that the new one is better. However, if for example the p-value of the test is 0.14, the scientific community does not conclude that the new one is as good as the old one. It merely concludes that the new one has not been shown to outperform the other one. It is therefore possible that an extension of the study with more cases may demonstrate that the new one is better.</p>","PeriodicalId":21281,"journal":{"name":"Revista de neurologia","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11468032/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[The enormous difference between not rejecting a null hypothesis and stating that it is true].\",\"authors\":\"C Carazo-Díaz, L Prieto-Valiente\",\"doi\":\"10.33588/rn.7901.2024090\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Assuming that a hypothesis is true because insufficient evidence has been found to reject it is a very common error when interpreting the p-value of a test in biomedical research. For example, a value of p = 0.28 obviously does not mean the null hypothesis should be ruled out, but if we understand what it means (which is not a mathematical issue, but instead a purely logical one) that it is equally obvious that it cannot be stated that it is true. If the samples in a comparison of a new drug with an old one show that the new one has a higher healing percentage and the p-value of the test is 0.0004, for example, the scientific community concludes that the new one is better. However, if for example the p-value of the test is 0.14, the scientific community does not conclude that the new one is as good as the old one. It merely concludes that the new one has not been shown to outperform the other one. It is therefore possible that an extension of the study with more cases may demonstrate that the new one is better.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21281,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Revista de neurologia\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11468032/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Revista de neurologia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.33588/rn.7901.2024090\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista de neurologia","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.33588/rn.7901.2024090","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在生物医学研究中,在解释检验的 p 值时,一个非常常见的错误是,因为没有发现足够的证据来否定一个假设,就认为该假设是真的。例如,p = 0.28 的值显然并不意味着应该排除零假设,但如果我们理解了它的含义(这不是一个数学问题,而是一个纯粹的逻辑问题),同样明显的是,不能说它是真的。例如,如果在新药与旧药的比较中,样本显示新药的治愈率更高,而检验的 p 值为 0.0004,那么科学界就会得出结论认为新药更好。然而,如果测试的 p 值为 0.14,科学界并不会得出新的与旧的一样好的结论。科学界只是得出结论,新的检验方法并没有证明优于旧的检验方法。因此,如果扩大研究范围,增加更多的案例,就有可能证明新方法更好。
[The enormous difference between not rejecting a null hypothesis and stating that it is true].
Assuming that a hypothesis is true because insufficient evidence has been found to reject it is a very common error when interpreting the p-value of a test in biomedical research. For example, a value of p = 0.28 obviously does not mean the null hypothesis should be ruled out, but if we understand what it means (which is not a mathematical issue, but instead a purely logical one) that it is equally obvious that it cannot be stated that it is true. If the samples in a comparison of a new drug with an old one show that the new one has a higher healing percentage and the p-value of the test is 0.0004, for example, the scientific community concludes that the new one is better. However, if for example the p-value of the test is 0.14, the scientific community does not conclude that the new one is as good as the old one. It merely concludes that the new one has not been shown to outperform the other one. It is therefore possible that an extension of the study with more cases may demonstrate that the new one is better.