Justin Im, Mohamed A R Soliman, Alexander O Aguirre, Esteban Quiceno, Evan Burns, Ali M A Khan, Cathleen C Kuo, Rehman A Baig, Asham Khan, Ryan M Hess, John Pollina, Jeffrey P Mullin
{"title":"美国外科学院国家手术质量改进计划手术风险计算器作为成人脊柱畸形手术后结果的预测指标：回顾性队列分析","authors":"Justin Im, Mohamed A R Soliman, Alexander O Aguirre, Esteban Quiceno, Evan Burns, Ali M A Khan, Cathleen C Kuo, Rehman A Baig, Asham Khan, Ryan M Hess, John Pollina, Jeffrey P Mullin","doi":"10.1227/neu.0000000000003066","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background and objectives: </strong>In recent years, there has been an outpouring of scoring systems that were built to predict outcomes after various surgical procedures; however, research validating these studies in spinal surgery is quite limited. In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) for various postoperative outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective chart review was conducted to identify patients who underwent spinal deformity surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022. Demographic and clinical data necessary to use the ACS NSQIP SRC and postoperative outcomes were collected for these patients. Predictability was analyzed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves and Brier scores.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 159 study patients, the mean age was 64.5 ± 9.5 years, mean body mass index was 31.9 ± 6.6, and 95 (59.7%) patients were women. The outcome most accurately predicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC was postoperative pneumonia (observed = 5.0% vs predicted = 3.2%, AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.05), but its predictability still fell below the acceptable threshold. Other outcomes that were underpredicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC were readmission within 30 days (observed = 13.8% vs predicted = 9.0%, AUC = 0.63, Brier score = 0.12), rate of discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facilities (observed = 56.0% vs predicted = 46.6%, AUC = 0.59, Brier = 0.26), reoperation (observed 11.9% vs predicted 5.4%, AUC = 0.60, Brier = 0.11), surgical site infection (observed 9.4% vs predicted 3.5%, AUC = 0.61, Brier = 0.05), and any complication (observed 33.3% vs 19%, AUC = 0.65, Brier = 0.23). Predicted and observed length of stay were not significantly associated (β = 0.132, P = .47).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The ACS NSQIP SRC is a poor predictor of outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.</p>","PeriodicalId":19276,"journal":{"name":"Neurosurgery","volume":" ","pages":"338-345"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator as a Predictor of Postoperative Outcomes After Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Justin Im, Mohamed A R Soliman, Alexander O Aguirre, Esteban Quiceno, Evan Burns, Ali M A Khan, Cathleen C Kuo, Rehman A Baig, Asham Khan, Ryan M Hess, John Pollina, Jeffrey P Mullin\",\"doi\":\"10.1227/neu.0000000000003066\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background and objectives: </strong>In recent years, there has been an outpouring of scoring systems that were built to predict outcomes after various surgical procedures; however, research validating these studies in spinal surgery is quite limited. In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) for various postoperative outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective chart review was conducted to identify patients who underwent spinal deformity surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022. Demographic and clinical data necessary to use the ACS NSQIP SRC and postoperative outcomes were collected for these patients. Predictability was analyzed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves and Brier scores.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 159 study patients, the mean age was 64.5 ± 9.5 years, mean body mass index was 31.9 ± 6.6, and 95 (59.7%) patients were women. The outcome most accurately predicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC was postoperative pneumonia (observed = 5.0% vs predicted = 3.2%, AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.05), but its predictability still fell below the acceptable threshold. Other outcomes that were underpredicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC were readmission within 30 days (observed = 13.8% vs predicted = 9.0%, AUC = 0.63, Brier score = 0.12), rate of discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facilities (observed = 56.0% vs predicted = 46.6%, AUC = 0.59, Brier = 0.26), reoperation (observed 11.9% vs predicted 5.4%, AUC = 0.60, Brier = 0.11), surgical site infection (observed 9.4% vs predicted 3.5%, AUC = 0.61, Brier = 0.05), and any complication (observed 33.3% vs 19%, AUC = 0.65, Brier = 0.23). Predicted and observed length of stay were not significantly associated (β = 0.132, P = .47).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The ACS NSQIP SRC is a poor predictor of outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19276,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Neurosurgery\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"338-345\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Neurosurgery\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1227/neu.0000000000003066\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/6/27 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Neurosurgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1227/neu.0000000000003066","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/6/27 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator as a Predictor of Postoperative Outcomes After Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.
Background and objectives: In recent years, there has been an outpouring of scoring systems that were built to predict outcomes after various surgical procedures; however, research validating these studies in spinal surgery is quite limited. In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) for various postoperative outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.
Methods: A retrospective chart review was conducted to identify patients who underwent spinal deformity surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022. Demographic and clinical data necessary to use the ACS NSQIP SRC and postoperative outcomes were collected for these patients. Predictability was analyzed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves and Brier scores.
Results: Among the 159 study patients, the mean age was 64.5 ± 9.5 years, mean body mass index was 31.9 ± 6.6, and 95 (59.7%) patients were women. The outcome most accurately predicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC was postoperative pneumonia (observed = 5.0% vs predicted = 3.2%, AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.05), but its predictability still fell below the acceptable threshold. Other outcomes that were underpredicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC were readmission within 30 days (observed = 13.8% vs predicted = 9.0%, AUC = 0.63, Brier score = 0.12), rate of discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facilities (observed = 56.0% vs predicted = 46.6%, AUC = 0.59, Brier = 0.26), reoperation (observed 11.9% vs predicted 5.4%, AUC = 0.60, Brier = 0.11), surgical site infection (observed 9.4% vs predicted 3.5%, AUC = 0.61, Brier = 0.05), and any complication (observed 33.3% vs 19%, AUC = 0.65, Brier = 0.23). Predicted and observed length of stay were not significantly associated (β = 0.132, P = .47).
Conclusion: The ACS NSQIP SRC is a poor predictor of outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.
期刊介绍：
Neurosurgery, the official journal of the Congress of Neurological Surgeons, publishes research on clinical and experimental neurosurgery covering the very latest developments in science, technology, and medicine. For professionals aware of the rapid pace of developments in the field, this journal is nothing short of indispensable as the most complete window on the contemporary field of neurosurgery.
Neurosurgery is the fastest-growing journal in the field, with a worldwide reputation for reliable coverage delivered with a fresh and dynamic outlook.
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