Can Machine Learning Models Based on Computed Tomography Radiomics and Clinical Characteristics Provide Diagnostic Value for Epstein-Barr Virus-Associated Gastric Cancer?

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore whether machine learning model based on computed tomography (CT) radiomics and clinical characteristics can differentiate Epstein-Barr virus-associated gastric cancer (EBVaGC) from non-EBVaGC.

Methods: Contrast-enhanced CT images were collected from 158 patients with GC (46 EBV-positive, 112 EBV-negative) between April 2018 and February 2023. Radiomics features were extracted from the volumes of interest. A radiomics signature was built based on radiomics features by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression algorithm. Multivariate analyses were used to identify significant clinicoradiological variables. We developed 6 ML models for EBVaGC, including logistic regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, random forest (RF), support vector machine, Gaussian Naive Bayes, and K-nearest neighbor algorithm. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curves (AP), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were applied to assess the effectiveness of each model.

Results: Six ML models achieved AUC of 0.706-0.854 and AP of 0.480-0.793 for predicting EBV status in GC. With an AUC of 0.854 and an AP of 0.793, the RF model performed the best. The forest plot of the AUC score revealed that the RF model had the most stable performance, with a standard deviation of 0.003 for AUC score. RF also performed well in the testing dataset, with an AUC of 0.832 (95% confidence interval: 0.679-0.951), accuracy of 0.833, sensitivity of 0.857, and specificity of 0.824, respectively.

Conclusions: The RF model based on clinical variables and Rad_score can serve as a noninvasive tool to evaluate the EBV status of gastric cancer.