Geographic Atrophy Natural History Versus Treatment: Time to Fovea.

Background and objective: The Food and Drug Administration recently approved treatments of geographic atrophy (GA). Our study aims to quantify the time for a lesion to reach the central fovea based on reduction of GA growth rates from therapeutics compared to the natural history.

Patients and methods: A previously published study calculates local border expansion rate of GA lesions at varying retinal eccentricities. In this study, we use these rates to model GA expansion toward the fovea and the effects of treatments that reduce growth in GA area by 15% to 45% on lesions of varying sizes with posterior margin 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, and 3000 µm from the fovea.

Results: Lesions with an area 8 mm² and posterior edge 500 µm from the fovea will reach the fovea in 5.08 years with no treatment, but the same lesions will reach the fovea in 5.85, 6.52, 7.36, and 8.46 years with a treatment that reduces growth in GA area by 15%, 25%, 35%, and 45%, respectively.

Conclusions: Distance of the posterior edge of the lesion was the primary factor in GA growth toward the fovea, and lesion size only minimally affects growth rates of GA. Based on the efficacy of current and future therapeutics and distance of GA to the fovea, our study provides the marginal time benefit of treatment to guide patients and clinicians, placing both the natural history of GA and the effects of current and future treatments into clinical context. [Ophthalmic Surg Lasers Imaging Retina 2024;55:576-585.].