Spatiotemporal analysis of marine environmental influence on the distribution of chub mackerel in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on geographical and temporal weighted regression

In order to further analyze the impact of the marine environment factors in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on the distribution of chub mackerel Scomber japonicus resources, a spatio-temporal weighted regression model was constructed based on the marine environmental and fishery data of China's light purse seine production in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Six environmental factors, including sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a), eddy kinetic energy (EKE), SST gradient intensity (GSST), longitudinal SST gradient (xGSST) and latitudinal SST gradient (yGSST) in spring, summer and autumn were used to analyze the impact of the temporal and spatial environmental factors on chub mackerel. The results show that the statistically significant variables (p < 0.05) were different in seasonal models. The SST, Chl-a, yGSST and EKE were statistically significant in the spring model, SST, yGSST and GSST in the summer model, and EKE, yGSST and GSST in the autumn model. The adjusted coefficients of determination (R²_adj.) of the spring, summer and autumn models were 0.488, 0.378 and 0.475, respectively. The results suggest that the coefficients of various environmental factors changed not only with time, but also with geographical location. Through this study, we can provide methodological reference for the study of resource change and fishery formation mechanism of chub mackerel fishery in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.