The association between COVID-19 vaccine/infection and new-onset asthma in children - based on the global TriNetX database.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of its potential long-term health effects, including its link to new-onset asthma in children. Asthma significantly impacts children's health, causing adverse outcomes and increased absenteeism. Emerging evidence suggests a potential association between COVID-19 infection and higher rates of new-onset asthma in adults, raising concerns about its impact on children's respiratory health.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study design was employed, using electronic medical records from the TriNetX database, covering January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022. Two cohorts of children aged 5 to 18 who underwent SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing were analyzed: unvaccinated children with and without COVID-19 infection, and vaccinated children with and without infection. Propensity score matching was used to mitigate selection bias, and hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI were calculated to assess the risk of new-onset asthma.

Results: Our study found a significantly higher incidence of new-onset asthma in COVID-19 infected children compared to uninfected children, regardless of vaccination status. In Cohort 1, 4.7% of COVID-19 infected children without vaccination developed new-onset asthma, versus 2.0% in their non-COVID-19 counterparts within a year (HR = 2.26; 95% CI = 2.158-2.367). For Cohort 2, COVID-19 infected children with vaccination showed an 8.3% incidence of new-onset asthma, higher than the 3.1% in those not infected (HR = 2.745; 95% CI = 2.521-2.99). Subgroup analyses further identified higher risks in males, children aged 5-12 years, and Black or African American children. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the reliability of these findings.

Conclusion: The study highlights a strong link between COVID-19 infection and an increased risk of new-onset asthma in children, which is even more marked in those vaccinated. This emphasizes the critical need for ongoing monitoring and customized healthcare strategies to mitigate the long-term respiratory impacts of COVID-19 in children, advocating for thorough strategies to manage and prevent asthma amidst the pandemic.