Feng Wang, Jiayi Xu, Fumei Wang, Xu Yang, Yang Xia, Hongli Zhou, Na Yi, Congcong Jiao, Xuesong Su, Beiru Zhang, Hua Zhou, Yanqiu Wang
{"title":"用于预测特发性膜性肾病肾脏预后的动态在线提名图。","authors":"Feng Wang, Jiayi Xu, Fumei Wang, Xu Yang, Yang Xia, Hongli Zhou, Na Yi, Congcong Jiao, Xuesong Su, Beiru Zhang, Hua Zhou, Yanqiu Wang","doi":"10.1186/s12911-024-02568-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Because spontaneous remission is common in IMN, and there are adverse effects of immunosuppressive therapy, it is important to assess the risk of progressive loss of renal function before deciding whether and when to initiate immunosuppressive therapy. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a risk prediction model to predict patient prognosis and treatment response to help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and decide on the best treatment regimen.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From September 2019 to December 2020, a total of 232 newly diagnosed IMN patients from three hospitals in Liaoning Province were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis selected the risk factors affecting the prognosis, and a dynamic online nomogram prognostic model was constructed based on extreme gradient boost, random forest, logistic regression machine learning algorithms. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves and decision curve analysis were utilized to assess the performance and clinical utility of the developed model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 130 patients were in the training cohort and 102 patients in the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis identified four risk factors: course ≥ 6 months, UTP, D-dimer and sPLA2R-Ab. The random forest algorithm showed the best performance with the highest AUROC (0.869). The nomogram had excellent discrimination ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the training cohort and the validation cohort.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The dynamic online nomogram model can effectively assess the prognosis and treatment response of IMN patients. This will help clinicians assess the patient's prognosis more accurately, communicate with the patient in advance, and jointly select the most appropriate treatment plan.</p>","PeriodicalId":9340,"journal":{"name":"BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11186104/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A dynamic online nomogram for predicting renal outcomes of idiopathic membranous nephropathy.\",\"authors\":\"Feng Wang, Jiayi Xu, Fumei Wang, Xu Yang, Yang Xia, Hongli Zhou, Na Yi, Congcong Jiao, Xuesong Su, Beiru Zhang, Hua Zhou, Yanqiu Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s12911-024-02568-2\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Because spontaneous remission is common in IMN, and there are adverse effects of immunosuppressive therapy, it is important to assess the risk of progressive loss of renal function before deciding whether and when to initiate immunosuppressive therapy. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a risk prediction model to predict patient prognosis and treatment response to help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and decide on the best treatment regimen.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From September 2019 to December 2020, a total of 232 newly diagnosed IMN patients from three hospitals in Liaoning Province were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis selected the risk factors affecting the prognosis, and a dynamic online nomogram prognostic model was constructed based on extreme gradient boost, random forest, logistic regression machine learning algorithms. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves and decision curve analysis were utilized to assess the performance and clinical utility of the developed model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 130 patients were in the training cohort and 102 patients in the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis identified four risk factors: course ≥ 6 months, UTP, D-dimer and sPLA2R-Ab. The random forest algorithm showed the best performance with the highest AUROC (0.869). The nomogram had excellent discrimination ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the training cohort and the validation cohort.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The dynamic online nomogram model can effectively assess the prognosis and treatment response of IMN patients. This will help clinicians assess the patient's prognosis more accurately, communicate with the patient in advance, and jointly select the most appropriate treatment plan.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9340,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11186104/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-024-02568-2\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICAL INFORMATICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-024-02568-2","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICAL INFORMATICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
A dynamic online nomogram for predicting renal outcomes of idiopathic membranous nephropathy.
Background: Because spontaneous remission is common in IMN, and there are adverse effects of immunosuppressive therapy, it is important to assess the risk of progressive loss of renal function before deciding whether and when to initiate immunosuppressive therapy. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a risk prediction model to predict patient prognosis and treatment response to help clinicians evaluate patient prognosis and decide on the best treatment regimen.
Methods: From September 2019 to December 2020, a total of 232 newly diagnosed IMN patients from three hospitals in Liaoning Province were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis selected the risk factors affecting the prognosis, and a dynamic online nomogram prognostic model was constructed based on extreme gradient boost, random forest, logistic regression machine learning algorithms. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves and decision curve analysis were utilized to assess the performance and clinical utility of the developed model.
Results: A total of 130 patients were in the training cohort and 102 patients in the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis identified four risk factors: course ≥ 6 months, UTP, D-dimer and sPLA2R-Ab. The random forest algorithm showed the best performance with the highest AUROC (0.869). The nomogram had excellent discrimination ability, calibration ability and clinical practicability in both the training cohort and the validation cohort.
Conclusions: The dynamic online nomogram model can effectively assess the prognosis and treatment response of IMN patients. This will help clinicians assess the patient's prognosis more accurately, communicate with the patient in advance, and jointly select the most appropriate treatment plan.
期刊介绍:
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making is an open access journal publishing original peer-reviewed research articles in relation to the design, development, implementation, use, and evaluation of health information technologies and decision-making for human health.