Tapio Schneider, L. Ruby Leung, Robert C. J. Wills
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Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence
Abstract. Accelerated progress in climate modeling is urgently needed for proactive and effective climate change adaptation. The central challenge lies in accurately representing processes that are small in scale yet climatically important, such as turbulence and cloud formation. These processes will not be explicitly resolvable for the foreseeable future, necessitating the use of parameterizations. We propose a balanced approach that leverages the strengths of traditional process-based parameterizations and contemporary artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to model subgrid-scale processes. This strategy employs AI to derive data-driven closure functions from both observational and simulated data, integrated within parameterizations that encode system knowledge and conservation laws. In addition, increasing the resolution to resolve a larger fraction of small-scale processes can aid progress toward improved and interpretable climate predictions outside the observed climate distribution. However, currently feasible horizontal resolutions are limited to O(10 km) because higher resolutions would impede the creation of the ensembles that are needed for model calibration and uncertainty quantification, for sampling atmospheric and oceanic internal variability, and for broadly exploring and quantifying climate risks. By synergizing decades of scientific development with advanced AI techniques, our approach aims to significantly boost the accuracy, interpretability, and trustworthiness of climate predictions.
期刊介绍:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of high-quality studies investigating the Earth''s atmosphere and the underlying chemical and physical processes. It covers the altitude range from the land and ocean surface up to the turbopause, including the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere.
The main subject areas comprise atmospheric modelling, field measurements, remote sensing, and laboratory studies of gases, aerosols, clouds and precipitation, isotopes, radiation, dynamics, biosphere interactions, and hydrosphere interactions. The journal scope is focused on studies with general implications for atmospheric science rather than investigations that are primarily of local or technical interest.