Feasibility of Scaling up the Cost-Competitive and Clean Electrolytic Hydrogen Supply in China

Scaling up clean hydrogen supply in the near future is critical to achieving China’s hydrogen development target. This study established an electrolytic hydrogen development mechanism considering the generation mix and operation optimization of power systems with access to hydrogen. Based on the incremental cost principle, we quantified the provincial and national clean hydrogen production cost performance levels in 2030. The results indicated that this mechanism could effectively reduce the production cost of clean hydrogen in most provinces, with a national average value of less than 2 USD·kg⁻¹ at the 40-megaton hydrogen supply scale. Provincial cooperation via power transmission lines could further reduce the production cost to 1.72 USD·kg⁻¹. However, performance is affected by the potential distribution of hydrogen demand. From the supply side, competitiveness of the mechanism is limited to clean hydrogen production, while from the demand side, it could help electrolytic hydrogen fulfil a more significant role. This study could provide a solution for the ambitious development of renewables and the hydrogen economy in China.