日本环境温度与肺结核发病率的关系:一项生态研究

IF 1.5 Q4 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Keita Wagatsuma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管有多项研究调查了气温对单个城市或地区肺结核(TB)发病率的影响,但很少有研究使用全国范围的数据来调查这种关联的变化。本研究旨在量化日本全国肺结核发病率的时间变化与气温之间的关联。方法收集了 2007 年至 2019 年日本 47 个都道府县每周新确诊肺结核病例数和气象变量的数据。使用分布式滞后非线性模型量化了各都道府县肺结核发病率与气温之间的暴露-反应关系,然后使用元回归模型汇集所有都道府县的估计值,得出全国平均关联。与肺结核发病最低风险温度(4.45°C 时的第 10 百分位数)的人群相比,暴露于最高温度浓度的人群在第 99 百分位数(30.1°C)时的肺结核发病风险高出 52.0%(相对风险为 1.52,95% 置信区间为 1.04-2.23)。我们的研究结果还强调了这些关联在不同省份的异质性。结论加强监测和公共卫生策略以控制与气温相关的结核病,如果能针对特定地区的气象条件进行调整,可能会更加有效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Association of ambient temperature with tuberculosis incidence in Japan: An ecological study

Objectives

Although several studies have investigated the effects of temperature on the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in a single city or region, few studies have investigated the variations in this association using nationwide data. This study aimed to quantify the association between temporal variations in TB incidence and temperature across Japan.

Methods

The data on the weekly number of newly confirmed TB cases and meteorological variables in 47 Japanese prefectures from 2007 to 2019 were collected. The exposure-response relationships between TB incidence and temperature were quantified using a distributed lag nonlinear model for each prefecture, and estimates from all prefectures were then pooled using a meta-regression model to derive nationwide average associations.

Results

This study included 335,060 patients with TB. Compared to those with minimum risk temperature on TB incidence (10th percentile at 4.45°C), people who were exposed to the highest temperature concentrations had a 52.0% (relative risk 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.23) higher risk for TB incidence at the 99th percentile (30.1°C). Our results also emphasized the heterogeneity of these associations in different prefectures. Conclusions: Strengthening monitoring and public health strategies aimed at controlling temperature-related TB may be more effective when tailored to region-specific meteorological conditions.

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来源期刊
IJID regions
IJID regions Infectious Diseases
CiteScore
1.60
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