The compulsory education law, female education and fertility: An empirical study in China

China promulgated the Compulsory Education Law in 1986, which was subsequently gradually implemented in various provinces. While promoting the development of education in China, whether the implementation of the Compulsory Education Law also has an impact on the fertility rate is an important aspect of understanding the fertility problem in China. This paper examines the marginal treatment effect of education on fertility by using the sampling data of 1 % national population sample survey data in 2015. The empirical study finds that the effect of education on fertility was heterogeneous. For women who face greater difficulties in completing junior high school, education has a greater negative impact on their childbearing. For women who have more opportunities to complete junior high school, the impact of education on childbearing is not significant. The policy simulation results of this paper show that with the increasing completion rate of nine-year compulsory education, education significantly reduces fertility rates in China. The empirical study in this paper has important policy implications. At present, China's fertility policies have turned to incentive-based policies, and the extensive supports of social policies are more critical for the policy goal of improving fertility level.