预计到 2070 年,气候变化将影响全球松树(松属)的分布和丰富程度

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Diego F. Salazar-Tortosa, Bianca Saladin, Jorge Castro, Rafael Rubio de Casas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化正在改变许多生物的栖息地适宜性,并在全球范围内改变物种的分布范围。在这里,我们探讨了气候变化对北方陆地生态系统的基本要素--112 种松树(Pinus)的影响。我们采用了一种新的物种分布建模方法,该方法考虑了气候预测和分类群取样的不确定性,并纳入了物种近期进化史的要素。我们以气候和土壤数据为基础进行生态位计算,并计算了多种算法和 IPCC 情景下的预测结果,然后将其组合成一张适宜性地图。然后,我们使用系统发生学方法,通过估计气候生态位的演变来解释近期气候要求的演变。然后将气候和进化分析结合起来,在不确定性较高的地区对预测结果进行校准。根据我们的模型预测,到 2070 年,大多数松树物种(58%)的栖息地适宜性可能会大幅下降,从而可能导致物种分布范围缩小和物种丰富度降低,尤其是在地中海盆地和南北美洲等地区,尽管在某些情况下迁移可能会缓解这些变化。与此相反,我们的预测显示,约有 20% 的物种的栖息地适宜性有所提高,在气候变化的影响下,这些物种的分布范围可能会扩大。此外,对近期进化趋势的考虑也改变了预测方案,减少了一些物种的分布范围丧失,增加了分布范围的扩展。我们预测,气候变化将使整个生物地理区域的松树分布和多样性发生急剧变化,但变化的程度和方向在不同区域和类群之间会有很大差异。物种层面的反应可能会受到地区条件和每个类群近期进化史的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070

Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070

Aim

Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and modifying species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of climate change on 112 pine species (Pinus), fundamental elements of Northern terrestrial ecosystems.

Location

Global.

Methods

We applied a novel methodology for species distribution modelling that considers uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon sampling, and incorporates elements of species' recent evolutionary history. We based our niche calculations on climate and soil data and computed projections across multiple algorithms and IPCC scenarios, which were ensembled into one single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic methods to account for recent evolution in climatic requirements by estimating the evolution of climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and evolutionary analyses were then combined to calibrate the projections in areas showing high uncertainty. We validated our models using naturalized occurrences of invasive pine species.

Results

Our models predicted that by 2070, most pine species (58%) might face important reductions of habitat suitability, potentially leading to range losses and a decrease in species richness, particularly in some regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and South North America, albeit migration might mitigate these shifts in some cases. In contrast, our projections showed increased habitat suitability for approx. 20% of species, which may undergo range expansions under climate change. Moreover, the consideration of recent evolutionary trends modified projected scenarios, decreasing range loss and increasing range expansion for some species. The independent validation endorsed our models for many species and the influence of recent evolution in some cases.

Conclusions

We predict that climate change will impose drastic changes in pine distribution and diversity across biogeographical regions, but the magnitude and direction of change will vary significantly across regions and taxa. Species-level responses are likely to be influenced by regional conditions and the recent evolutionary history of each taxon.

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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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