Improving growth models of cultivated sugar kelp, Saccharina latissima, by accounting for intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance

Dynamic models of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) growth are used to estimate the production potential of seaweed aquaculture in many regions around the world. These models do not currently account for the existence of S. latissima ecotypes that are adapted to regional environmental conditions, particularly temperature. We tested the hypothesis that recalibrating the temperature parameters of a dynamic energy budget model using literature data for S. latissima from regions with a similar climate to the region of interest would result in more accurate predictions than using a general species-wide temperature response curve. Calibrating the model using data from warm regions significantly improved model accuracy for kelp cultivation at the southern end of the species range (Rhode Island, USA) in cases where the original parameters underestimated growth but resulted in drastic overestimates when heavy frond erosion occurred. In Trømso, Norway, a cold parameterization produced extremely accurate predictions: the model predicted a final frond length of 88.2 cm, compared with the observed length of 87.5 (±4.70) cm. Our results demonstrate that recalibrating temperature response curves allows one model to be applied to kelp aquaculture in different regions, an important step toward the prediction of S. latissima productivity over large areas.