Regiane Moura, Ronald Buss de Souza, Fernanda Casagrande, Douglas da Silva Lindemann
{"title":"南大西洋的海气热通量变化:当今和未来的气候情景","authors":"Regiane Moura, Ronald Buss de Souza, Fernanda Casagrande, Douglas da Silva Lindemann","doi":"10.1002/joc.8517","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the variations in air–sea heat fluxes and temperatures in two ocean front regions, the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA) and the Drake Passage, widely recognized as hotspot areas with significant influences on South America weather and climate. We analyse means and trends of latent and sensible heat fluxes (LHF and SHF) and their associated air–sea temperatures (SAT and SST), based on monthly ERA5 (1985–2014) and eight CMIP6 models, for historical and long-term simulations (2015–2099). The ERA5 trend for all parameters was positive over SWA, contrasting with the negative values observed in the Drake Passage, indicating surface warming and cooling, respectively. In the SWA, the ERA5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) align in SST and SAT values, with a historical trend of 0.1°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> and a significantly increasing trend in warming estimated by 0.4°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> up to 2099. The ERA5 LHF and SHF trends were 4 and 0.6 W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup>, respectively. The MME shows historical (SSP5-8.5) trends of 0.2 (1.3) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for LHF and −0.2 (−0.1) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for SHF. In the Drake Passage, the models accurately reproduced the air–sea mean temperatures; however, they failed to simulate negative trends observed in SAT and SST. Under the high emissions scenario, all CMIP6 models predict an increasing warming trends of 0.1–0.4°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> and ocean heat gain of −0.2 to −1.2 (−1 to −2) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for LHF (SHF). For both regions, spatial analyses of SST and SAT highlight the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, alongside changes in air–sea heat fluxes. Our findings reveal inhomogeneous patterns of SST warming trends by the end of the 21st century, which are approximately 2–4 times greater than historical trends. The results suggest the persistence and enhancement of these regions as hotspots with significant potential to influence oceanic and atmospheric dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Air–sea heat fluxes variations in the Southern Atlantic Ocean: Present-day and future climate scenarios\",\"authors\":\"Regiane Moura, Ronald Buss de Souza, Fernanda Casagrande, Douglas da Silva Lindemann\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/joc.8517\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This study investigates the variations in air–sea heat fluxes and temperatures in two ocean front regions, the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA) and the Drake Passage, widely recognized as hotspot areas with significant influences on South America weather and climate. We analyse means and trends of latent and sensible heat fluxes (LHF and SHF) and their associated air–sea temperatures (SAT and SST), based on monthly ERA5 (1985–2014) and eight CMIP6 models, for historical and long-term simulations (2015–2099). The ERA5 trend for all parameters was positive over SWA, contrasting with the negative values observed in the Drake Passage, indicating surface warming and cooling, respectively. In the SWA, the ERA5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) align in SST and SAT values, with a historical trend of 0.1°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> and a significantly increasing trend in warming estimated by 0.4°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> up to 2099. The ERA5 LHF and SHF trends were 4 and 0.6 W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup>, respectively. The MME shows historical (SSP5-8.5) trends of 0.2 (1.3) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for LHF and −0.2 (−0.1) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for SHF. In the Drake Passage, the models accurately reproduced the air–sea mean temperatures; however, they failed to simulate negative trends observed in SAT and SST. Under the high emissions scenario, all CMIP6 models predict an increasing warming trends of 0.1–0.4°C·decade<sup>−1</sup> and ocean heat gain of −0.2 to −1.2 (−1 to −2) W·m<sup>−2</sup>·decade<sup>−1</sup> for LHF (SHF). For both regions, spatial analyses of SST and SAT highlight the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, alongside changes in air–sea heat fluxes. Our findings reveal inhomogeneous patterns of SST warming trends by the end of the 21st century, which are approximately 2–4 times greater than historical trends. 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Air–sea heat fluxes variations in the Southern Atlantic Ocean: Present-day and future climate scenarios
This study investigates the variations in air–sea heat fluxes and temperatures in two ocean front regions, the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA) and the Drake Passage, widely recognized as hotspot areas with significant influences on South America weather and climate. We analyse means and trends of latent and sensible heat fluxes (LHF and SHF) and their associated air–sea temperatures (SAT and SST), based on monthly ERA5 (1985–2014) and eight CMIP6 models, for historical and long-term simulations (2015–2099). The ERA5 trend for all parameters was positive over SWA, contrasting with the negative values observed in the Drake Passage, indicating surface warming and cooling, respectively. In the SWA, the ERA5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) align in SST and SAT values, with a historical trend of 0.1°C·decade−1 and a significantly increasing trend in warming estimated by 0.4°C·decade−1 up to 2099. The ERA5 LHF and SHF trends were 4 and 0.6 W·m−2·decade−1, respectively. The MME shows historical (SSP5-8.5) trends of 0.2 (1.3) W·m−2·decade−1 for LHF and −0.2 (−0.1) W·m−2·decade−1 for SHF. In the Drake Passage, the models accurately reproduced the air–sea mean temperatures; however, they failed to simulate negative trends observed in SAT and SST. Under the high emissions scenario, all CMIP6 models predict an increasing warming trends of 0.1–0.4°C·decade−1 and ocean heat gain of −0.2 to −1.2 (−1 to −2) W·m−2·decade−1 for LHF (SHF). For both regions, spatial analyses of SST and SAT highlight the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, alongside changes in air–sea heat fluxes. Our findings reveal inhomogeneous patterns of SST warming trends by the end of the 21st century, which are approximately 2–4 times greater than historical trends. The results suggest the persistence and enhancement of these regions as hotspots with significant potential to influence oceanic and atmospheric dynamics.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions