印度尼西亚国内投资决定因素调查:2010年第一季度至2018年第四季度的分析

AD Tombolotutu, MA Djirimu, Nurul Ufaira, Ika Rafika
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在探讨印度尼西亚的通货膨胀、信贷利率、汇率和劳动力对国内投资(PMDN)的影响。研究利用投资协调委员会、中央统计局和印尼中央银行等政府机构提供的二级时间序列数据,考察了 2010 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度的这些宏观经济变量。定量数据分析包括多元回归和自回归条件异方差(ARCH)和广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)等模型,用于确定自变量和因变量之间的关系。研究结果表明,汇率和劳动力对 PMDN 有积极和显著的影响,而信贷利率则有消极和显著的影响。通货膨胀对 PMDN 的影响为负,且不显著。研究得出结论,使用 E-GARCH 的最佳模型,通货膨胀、信贷利率、汇率和劳动力会影响印度尼西亚的 PMDN。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Investigation of the Determinant Factors of Indonesia Domestic Investment: An Analysis of the Q1 2010 to Q4 2018 Period
The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of inflation, credit interest rates, exchange rates, and labor on domestic investment (PMDN) in Indonesia. Using secondary time series data from government institutions such as the Investment Coordinating Board, Central Statistics Agency, and Central Bank of Indonesia, the research examined these macroeconomic variables from Q1 2010 to Q4 2018. Quantitative data analysis, including multiple regression and models such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), was used to determine the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The findings indicate that exchange rates and labor have a positive as well as significant impact on PMDN, while credit interest rates have a negative and significant impact. The effect of inflation on PMDN was found to be negative and insignificant. The research concludes that using the best model of E-GARCH, inflation, credit interest rates, exchange rates, and labor affect PMDN in Indonesia.
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