Environmental drivers and fitness consequences of partial migration under climate change

Animals migrate to access seasonally variable resources or to escape unfavorable local conditions. Partial (flexible) migration strategies offer animals a fitness trade-off in which individuals may choose whether to incur the energetic costs of migration depending on the potential benefits associated with avoiding adverse conditions. Partial migration patterns may shift due to anthropogenic land use and climate change, possibly reducing the benefits of migration and resulting in unpredictable migration cues. We examined causes, consequences, and changes in individual-level partial migration of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus by analyzing archival telemetry data (1986-2014) across four distinct populations in the Great Lakes region, North America. We hypothesized that if the costs of migration outweigh benefits, we would see migratory behavior decline. Migratory behavior declined from 75% in 1987 to 11% in 2014 independent of population identity. Annual mortality was higher for migratory white-tailed deer, while increasing minimum temperatures positively impacted survival but did not influence migration. Our results suggest that migratory behavior in white-tailed deer is declining over time and may be associated with declining winter severity. The loss of migratory behavior in large mammals may have ecosystem-level impacts and our study emphasizes the need to better understand and conserve these migratory traditions.