Has Health Physics Contributed to an 80-y False Narrative about the Trinity Nuclear Test?

Abstract: This paper discusses the various analyses of the Trinity Nuclear Test, including how they might apply to the issue of infant mortality. This paper was first drafted as a response to a letter by Rice, who commented on my earlier letter on that issue. My earlier letter commented on the National Cancer Institute's 2020 series of papers in the October Issue of Health Physics on the impact of the Trinity Nuclear Test that was conducted on unoccupied government lands on 16 July 1945. The Journal editors requested that my response to Rice be edited and submitted as a paper to ensure adequate technical review and suggested that the article also add material summarizing the series of exchanges that were published in the Journal. This article suggests that significant differences exist between various summaries of the offsite impact of the Trinity Nuclear Test and offers that Trinity might be the largest nuclear accident in terms of the impact on uninvolved civilians who were downwind following the test. It suggests areas for further study to resolve these significant differences. It also asserts that until the estimated exposures of downwind residents are resolved and an appropriate study is made of infant deaths following the Trinity Nuclear Test, the issue of infant mortality remains an unanswered, 80-y-old question.