RaFSIP: Parameterizing Ice Multiplication in Models Using a Machine Learning Approach

Accurately representing mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is critical for capturing climate sensitivity and Arctic amplification. Secondary ice production (SIP), can significantly increase ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in MPCs, affecting cloud properties and processes. Here, we introduce a machine-learning (ML) approach, called Random Forest SIP (RaFSIP), to parameterize SIP in stratiform MPCs. RaFSIP is trained on 16 grid points with 10-km horizontal spacing derived from a 2-year simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, including explicit SIP microphysics. Designed for a temperature range of 0 to −25°C, RaFSIP simplifies the description of rime splintering, ice-ice collisional break-up, and droplet-shattering using only a limited set of inputs. RaFSIP was evaluated offline before being integrated into WRF, demonstrating its stable online performance in a 1-year simulation keeping the same model setup as during training. Even when coupled with the 50-km grid spacing domain of WRF, RaFSIP reproduces ICNC predictions within a factor of 3 when compared to simulations with explicit SIP microphysics. The coupled WRF-RaFSIP scheme replicates regions of enhanced SIP and accurately maps ICNCs and liquid water content, particularly at temperatures above −10°C. Uncertainties in RaFSIP minimally impact surface cloud radiative forcing in the Arctic, resulting in radiative biases under 3 Wm⁻² compared to simulations with detailed microphysics. Although the performance of RaFSIP in convective clouds remains untested, its adaptable nature allows for data set augmentation to address this aspect. This framework opens possibilities for GCM simplification and process description through physics-guided ML algorithms.