Past and future joint return period of precipitation extremes over South Asia and Southeast Asia

Climate change is one of the major reasons for the increased intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in tropical regions. This will have a significant impact on underdeveloped countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, this study analyzes changes in spatiotemporal patterns and the joint behavior of precipitation extremes across South Asian and Southeast Asian countries for the historical period (1975 to 2014) and future periods (2021–2060 (F1) and 2061–2100 (F2)). This study develops bias-corrected precipitation data and ranks General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Empirical Quantile Mapping method and TOPSIS method, respectively. A multi-model ensemble of precipitation extremes is created using the top five GCMs. The Mann Kendall test is used to analyze trends in precipitation extremes. Joint probabilistic analysis is also conducted for different combinations of ETCCDI precipitation-based indices using Archimedes and Elliptical copulas. The results of the trend analysis indicate significant positive trends for R20mm (19.26%), R95pTOT (18.40%), Rx5Day (11.53%), and CWD (10.46%), while CDD (5.07%) shows a significant negative trend across the study area during historical period (1975–2014). The results of R20mm, R95pTOT, and Rx5Day under SSP585 shows almost 19 to 39% of area comes under significant positive trend during the F1 period. This becomes more evident in F2, with trends under SSP585 rising between 32% and 61%. The high-emissions scenario SSP585 reveals an increase in these positive trends compared to SSP126 in both the future periods (F1 and F2). These results indicating a noticeable rise in extreme precipitation events. The analysis of changes in the joint return period of precipitation extremes indicates that the South Peninsular India, North East India, West Central India and Central Northeast India, as well as most parts of Southeast Asian countries, will experience very heavy intensify precipitations in the future. In addition, persistent co-occurrence of dry and wet conditions will be observed in Pakistan, North West India, and Central Northeast India. This study provides useful information on the distribution of precipitation extremes in different regions of the study area.