西班牙烟草消费与肺癌死亡率之间的时间依赖性。

IF 8.7 3区医学 Q1 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM

Archivos De Bronconeumologia Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1016/j.arbres.2024.05.028

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的：肺癌是导致癌症死亡的主要原因，也是全球第二大常见的男女癌症，烟草是其主要风险因素。本研究旨在确定西班牙吸烟率与肺癌死亡率之间的时间关系：为了模拟吸烟率与肺癌死亡率之间的时间依赖关系，采用了分布式滞后非线性模型，并对性别、年龄、死亡年份和高危人群进行了调整。模型使用了 1991-2020 年的吸烟率数据。考虑到最大滞后期为 25 年，因此纳入了 2016-2020 年的死亡率数据。每个滞后期吸烟率对死亡率的影响以相对风险（RR）表示。为了确定吸烟率对死亡率影响最大的滞后期，比较了不同滞后期的相对风险率：结果：在西班牙，吸烟率与肺癌死亡率之间的最佳滞后期为 15 年。吸烟率为 71%、滞后 15 年的最大死亡率为 2.9（95%CI：2.0-4.3）。吸烟率为 33%（1991-2020 年间的近似中值）且滞后 15 年的死亡率为 1.8：在西班牙，肺癌死亡率受15年前吸烟率的影响。要预测肺癌发病率和死亡率将如何演变，了解一个国家吸烟率的演变系列并确定滞后时间至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Time Dependence Between Tobacco Consumption and Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain

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Time Dependence Between Tobacco Consumption and Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain

Objectives

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death and the second most common cancer in both sexes worldwide, with tobacco being its main risk factor. The aim of this study is to establish the temporal relationship between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality in Spain.

Methods

To model the time dependence between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality, a distributed lag non-linear model was applied adjusting for sex, age, year of mortality and population at risk. Smoking prevalence data from 1991-2020 were used. Considering a maximum lag of 25 years, mortality data from 2016-2020 were included. The effect of prevalence on mortality for each lag is presented in terms of relative risk (RR). To identify the lag at which smoking prevalence has the greatest effect on mortality, the RR of the different lags were compared.

Results

The optimal lag observed between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality in Spain was 15 years. The maximum RR was 2.9 (95%CI: 2.0-4.3) for a prevalence of 71% and a 15-year lag. The RR was 1.8 for a prevalence of 33%, an approximate median value between 1991-2020, and a 15-year lag.

Conclusions

In Spain, lung cancer mortality is affected by smoking prevalence 15 years prior. Knowing the evolution of the smoking prevalence series in a country and establishing a lag time is essential to predict how lung cancer incidence and mortality will evolve.

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来源期刊

Archivos De Bronconeumologia Medicine-Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

17.50%

发文量

330

审稿时长

14 days

期刊介绍： Archivos de Bronconeumologia is a scientific journal that specializes in publishing prospective original research articles focusing on various aspects of respiratory diseases, including epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical practice, surgery, and basic investigation. Additionally, the journal features other types of articles such as reviews, editorials, special articles of interest to the society and editorial board, scientific letters, letters to the editor, and clinical images. Published monthly, the journal comprises 12 regular issues along with occasional supplements containing articles from different sections. All manuscripts submitted to the journal undergo rigorous evaluation by the editors and are subjected to expert peer review. The editorial team, led by the Editor and/or an Associate Editor, manages the peer-review process. Archivos de Bronconeumologia is published monthly in English, facilitating broad dissemination of the latest research findings in the field.