Zhishuai Li;Gang Xiong;Yisheng Lv;Peijun Ye;Xiaoli Liu;Sasu Tarkoma;Fei-Yue Wang
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Concretely, the dynamic of virus propagation among individuals is first modeled, and then an agent-based microsimulation environment is built as an artificial system to conduct the epidemic spread simulation. Finally, the trajectories are loaded into the agents as the reliance for their interactions, and the macroscopic changes under different interventions are revealed in a bottom–up way. As a case study, we conduct the simulation based on the trajectories in a real region, in which we find the following. 1) Among the three examined nonpharmacological interventions, community containment is more effective than keeping social distance, which can lower the deaths to nearly 1/9 compared to no action, while travel restrictions play limited roles. 2) There is a strong positive correlation between population densities and mortality. 3) The timing of community containment triggered by confirmed diagnoses is proportional to the number of deaths, thus early containment will significantly decrease mortality.","PeriodicalId":13044,"journal":{"name":"IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An Urban Trajectory Data-Driven Approach for COVID-19 Simulation\",\"authors\":\"Zhishuai Li;Gang Xiong;Yisheng Lv;Peijun Ye;Xiaoli Liu;Sasu Tarkoma;Fei-Yue Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/TCSS.2024.3351886\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed the world deeply. Urban trajectory big data collected by wireless sensing devices provide great assistance for COVID-19 prevention. However, except for contact tracing, trajectory data are rarely employed in other preventative scenarios against the pandemic. In this article, we try to extend the application of trajectories auto-collected by wireless sensing devices and simulate the epidemic spread in a trajectory data-driven manner. After that, the effects of three nonpharmacological measures are quantified. In contrast to existing studies, additional requirements such as the complex topological networks are needless in our simulation, where the interactions between agents are derived by the intersections of their trajectories. Concretely, the dynamic of virus propagation among individuals is first modeled, and then an agent-based microsimulation environment is built as an artificial system to conduct the epidemic spread simulation. Finally, the trajectories are loaded into the agents as the reliance for their interactions, and the macroscopic changes under different interventions are revealed in a bottom–up way. As a case study, we conduct the simulation based on the trajectories in a real region, in which we find the following. 1) Among the three examined nonpharmacological interventions, community containment is more effective than keeping social distance, which can lower the deaths to nearly 1/9 compared to no action, while travel restrictions play limited roles. 2) There is a strong positive correlation between population densities and mortality. 3) The timing of community containment triggered by confirmed diagnoses is proportional to the number of deaths, thus early containment will significantly decrease mortality.\",\"PeriodicalId\":13044,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10418978/\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"COMPUTER SCIENCE, CYBERNETICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10418978/","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"COMPUTER SCIENCE, CYBERNETICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
An Urban Trajectory Data-Driven Approach for COVID-19 Simulation
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed the world deeply. Urban trajectory big data collected by wireless sensing devices provide great assistance for COVID-19 prevention. However, except for contact tracing, trajectory data are rarely employed in other preventative scenarios against the pandemic. In this article, we try to extend the application of trajectories auto-collected by wireless sensing devices and simulate the epidemic spread in a trajectory data-driven manner. After that, the effects of three nonpharmacological measures are quantified. In contrast to existing studies, additional requirements such as the complex topological networks are needless in our simulation, where the interactions between agents are derived by the intersections of their trajectories. Concretely, the dynamic of virus propagation among individuals is first modeled, and then an agent-based microsimulation environment is built as an artificial system to conduct the epidemic spread simulation. Finally, the trajectories are loaded into the agents as the reliance for their interactions, and the macroscopic changes under different interventions are revealed in a bottom–up way. As a case study, we conduct the simulation based on the trajectories in a real region, in which we find the following. 1) Among the three examined nonpharmacological interventions, community containment is more effective than keeping social distance, which can lower the deaths to nearly 1/9 compared to no action, while travel restrictions play limited roles. 2) There is a strong positive correlation between population densities and mortality. 3) The timing of community containment triggered by confirmed diagnoses is proportional to the number of deaths, thus early containment will significantly decrease mortality.
期刊介绍:
IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems focuses on such topics as modeling, simulation, analysis and understanding of social systems from the quantitative and/or computational perspective. "Systems" include man-man, man-machine and machine-machine organizations and adversarial situations as well as social media structures and their dynamics. More specifically, the proposed transactions publishes articles on modeling the dynamics of social systems, methodologies for incorporating and representing socio-cultural and behavioral aspects in computational modeling, analysis of social system behavior and structure, and paradigms for social systems modeling and simulation. The journal also features articles on social network dynamics, social intelligence and cognition, social systems design and architectures, socio-cultural modeling and representation, and computational behavior modeling, and their applications.