Meredith S Shiels, Anika T Haque, Neal D Freedman, Hae-Rin Kim, Amy Berrington de González, Paul S Albert
{"title":"2020 年 3 月至 12 月 COVID-19 大流行期间美国特定年龄段癌症死亡率。","authors":"Meredith S Shiels, Anika T Haque, Neal D Freedman, Hae-Rin Kim, Amy Berrington de González, Paul S Albert","doi":"10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-24-0121","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the US. We estimated whether there were larger-than-expected changes in cancer mortality rates from March to December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011 to February 2020 by cancer type and age.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We obtained death counts and underlying causes of death by cancer type, month/year (2011-2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March to December 2020 compared with prior years.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March to December 2020 among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March to June among 55- to 64-year-olds and 2% to 3% lower from March to July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower from March to June [rate ratios (RR) = 0.94-0.96; P < 0.05]; however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs = 0.95; P < 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In the US, cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates from March to December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death.</p><p><strong>Impact: </strong>Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution.</p>","PeriodicalId":9458,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11293979/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Age-Specific Cancer Mortality in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to December 2020.\",\"authors\":\"Meredith S Shiels, Anika T Haque, Neal D Freedman, Hae-Rin Kim, Amy Berrington de González, Paul S Albert\",\"doi\":\"10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-24-0121\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the US. We estimated whether there were larger-than-expected changes in cancer mortality rates from March to December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011 to February 2020 by cancer type and age.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We obtained death counts and underlying causes of death by cancer type, month/year (2011-2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March to December 2020 compared with prior years.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March to December 2020 among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March to June among 55- to 64-year-olds and 2% to 3% lower from March to July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower from March to June [rate ratios (RR) = 0.94-0.96; P < 0.05]; however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs = 0.95; P < 0.05).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In the US, cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates from March to December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death.</p><p><strong>Impact: </strong>Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9458,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11293979/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-24-0121\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-24-0121","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Age-Specific Cancer Mortality in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to December 2020.
Background: It is important to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer death rates in 2020 in the US. We estimated whether there were larger-than-expected changes in cancer mortality rates from March to December 2020 after accounting for temporal and seasonal patterns using data from January 2011 to February 2020 by cancer type and age.
Methods: We obtained death counts and underlying causes of death by cancer type, month/year (2011-2020), and age group from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Poisson regression was used to test for significant changes in cancer death rates from March to December 2020 compared with prior years.
Results: After accounting for temporal trends and seasonal patterns, total cancer death rates were significantly lower than expected during March to December 2020 among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, but not in other age groups. Cancer death rates were 2% lower than expected from March to June among 55- to 64-year-olds and 2% to 3% lower from March to July and December among ≥75-year-olds. Among ≥75-year-olds, colorectal cancer death rates were lower from March to June [rate ratios (RR) = 0.94-0.96; P < 0.05]; however, lung cancer death rates were 5% lower across each month (all RRs = 0.95; P < 0.05).
Conclusions: In the US, cancer death rates based on the underlying cause of death were broadly similar to expected rates from March to December 2020. However, cancer death rates were lower than expected among 55- to 64-year-olds and ≥75-year-olds, likely due to COVID-19 as a competing cause of death.
Impact: Cancer mortality rates from 2020 should be interpreted with caution.
期刊介绍：
Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention publishes original peer-reviewed, population-based research on cancer etiology, prevention, surveillance, and survivorship. The following topics are of special interest: descriptive, analytical, and molecular epidemiology; biomarkers including assay development, validation, and application; chemoprevention and other types of prevention research in the context of descriptive and observational studies; the role of behavioral factors in cancer etiology and prevention; survivorship studies; risk factors; implementation science and cancer care delivery; and the science of cancer health disparities. Besides welcoming manuscripts that address individual subjects in any of the relevant disciplines, CEBP editors encourage the submission of manuscripts with a transdisciplinary approach.
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