Xiao Zhong, Dong-Li Wang, Li-Hua Xiao, Yan Liu, Shan-Wen Yang, Lan-Fang Mo, Qin-Fei Wu, Mei Lin, Lan-Fang He, Xiao-Feng Luo
{"title":"利用半马尔可夫多状态模型调查多重医院内感染。","authors":"Xiao Zhong, Dong-Li Wang, Li-Hua Xiao, Yan Liu, Shan-Wen Yang, Lan-Fang Mo, Qin-Fei Wu, Mei Lin, Lan-Fang He, Xiao-Feng Luo","doi":"10.1186/s13756-024-01421-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The prevalence of multiple nosocomial infections (MNIs) is on the rise, however, there remains a limited comprehension regarding the associated risk factors, cumulative risk, probability of occurrence, and impact on length of stay (LOS).</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This multicenter study includes all hospitalized patients from 2020 to July 2023 in two sub-hospitals of a tertiary hospital in Guangming District, Shenzhen. The semi-Markov multi-state model (MSM) was utilized to analyze risk factors and cumulative risk of MNI, predict its occurrence probability, and calculate the extra LOS of nosocomial infection (NI).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The risk factors for MNI include age, community infection at admission, surgery, and combined use of antibiotics. However, the cumulative risk of MNI is lower than that of single nosocomial infection (SNI). MNI is most likely to occur within 14 days after admission. Additionally, SNI prolongs LOS by an average of 7.48 days (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 6.06-8.68 days), while MNI prolongs LOS by an average of 15.94 days (95% CI: 14.03-18.17 days). Furthermore, the more sites of infection there are, the longer the extra LOS will be.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The longer LOS and increased treatment difficulty of MNI result in a heavier disease burden for patients, necessitating targeted prevention and control measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":7950,"journal":{"name":"Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control","volume":"13 1","pages":"58"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11157730/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Investigation of multiple nosocomial infections using a semi-Markov multi-state model.\",\"authors\":\"Xiao Zhong, Dong-Li Wang, Li-Hua Xiao, Yan Liu, Shan-Wen Yang, Lan-Fang Mo, Qin-Fei Wu, Mei Lin, Lan-Fang He, Xiao-Feng Luo\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s13756-024-01421-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The prevalence of multiple nosocomial infections (MNIs) is on the rise, however, there remains a limited comprehension regarding the associated risk factors, cumulative risk, probability of occurrence, and impact on length of stay (LOS).</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>This multicenter study includes all hospitalized patients from 2020 to July 2023 in two sub-hospitals of a tertiary hospital in Guangming District, Shenzhen. The semi-Markov multi-state model (MSM) was utilized to analyze risk factors and cumulative risk of MNI, predict its occurrence probability, and calculate the extra LOS of nosocomial infection (NI).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The risk factors for MNI include age, community infection at admission, surgery, and combined use of antibiotics. However, the cumulative risk of MNI is lower than that of single nosocomial infection (SNI). MNI is most likely to occur within 14 days after admission. Additionally, SNI prolongs LOS by an average of 7.48 days (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 6.06-8.68 days), while MNI prolongs LOS by an average of 15.94 days (95% CI: 14.03-18.17 days). Furthermore, the more sites of infection there are, the longer the extra LOS will be.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The longer LOS and increased treatment difficulty of MNI result in a heavier disease burden for patients, necessitating targeted prevention and control measures.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7950,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control\",\"volume\":\"13 1\",\"pages\":\"58\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11157730/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13756-024-01421-5\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13756-024-01421-5","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Investigation of multiple nosocomial infections using a semi-Markov multi-state model.
Background: The prevalence of multiple nosocomial infections (MNIs) is on the rise, however, there remains a limited comprehension regarding the associated risk factors, cumulative risk, probability of occurrence, and impact on length of stay (LOS).
Method: This multicenter study includes all hospitalized patients from 2020 to July 2023 in two sub-hospitals of a tertiary hospital in Guangming District, Shenzhen. The semi-Markov multi-state model (MSM) was utilized to analyze risk factors and cumulative risk of MNI, predict its occurrence probability, and calculate the extra LOS of nosocomial infection (NI).
Results: The risk factors for MNI include age, community infection at admission, surgery, and combined use of antibiotics. However, the cumulative risk of MNI is lower than that of single nosocomial infection (SNI). MNI is most likely to occur within 14 days after admission. Additionally, SNI prolongs LOS by an average of 7.48 days (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 6.06-8.68 days), while MNI prolongs LOS by an average of 15.94 days (95% CI: 14.03-18.17 days). Furthermore, the more sites of infection there are, the longer the extra LOS will be.
Conclusion: The longer LOS and increased treatment difficulty of MNI result in a heavier disease burden for patients, necessitating targeted prevention and control measures.
期刊介绍：
Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control is a global forum for all those working on the prevention, diagnostic and treatment of health-care associated infections and antimicrobial resistance development in all health-care settings. The journal covers a broad spectrum of preeminent practices and best available data to the top interventional and translational research, and innovative developments in the field of infection control.
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