Thomas F Crossley, Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R. Stinebrickner
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Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations
Using unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, we examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic expectations data reveals violations of Rational Expectations that are not detected by existing mean-based tests. Empirically, we find that our subjects underestimate the level of uncertainty they face about future incomes.
期刊介绍:
Journal of the European Economic Association replaces the European Economic Review as the official journal of the association. JEEA publishes articles of the highest scientific quality and is an outlet for theoretical and empirical work with global relevance. The journal is committed to promoting the ambitions of the EEA: the development and application of economics as a science, as well as the communication and exchange between teachers, researchers and students in economics.