Impact of the organ-system integrated curriculum on the research productivity of a Philippine government medical school: An ARIMA-based bibliometric analysis

The organ-system integrated (OSI) curriculum was pioneered in the country by the U.P. College of Medicine (UPCM) in 2004. Data on its impact on research productivity was lacking. This study aims to describe the trends in research productivity of UPCM in a time series and the impact of OSI implementation on publication trends. Relevant electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and WPRIM) were searched from the earliest indexed record until December 2023. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis was used to compare the actual and predicted trends during the OSI implementation using the pre-OSI trend. A total of 2,705 articles were included. Acta Medica Philippina is the journal with the highest number of publications (n = 420, 20.24%). Although there is a considerable rise in the number of publications utilizing evidence synthesis and qualitative design, observational studies remain as the most common design (n = 293, 2021-2023 period). The leading clinical departments are Neurosciences and Medicine. The departments of Biochemistry and Clinical Epidemiology take the lead among basic sciences departments. Despite the glaring uptrend in publications concurrent with OSI implementation, the actual trend is not significantly different from the predicted trend (LR chi2(1) = 0.37; Prob > chi2 = 0.5432). The OSI curriculum did not significantly change the trend of productivity. Medical curriculum designers should revisit strategies dedicated for research competencies. It is imperative to include activities for qualitative and mixed-methods designs. Future studies should consider relevant critical events in the time series forecasting models and the scientific outputs in the grey literature.