Ashvita Garg, Haluk Damgacioglu, Keith Sigel, Alan G Nyitray, Gary M Clifford, Thomas Curran, Gweneth Lazenby, Eric G Meissner, Katherine Sterba, Kalyani Sonawane, Ashish A Deshmukh
{"title":"2001-2035 年美国肛门鳞状细胞癌负担和发病率的未来模式。","authors":"Ashvita Garg, Haluk Damgacioglu, Keith Sigel, Alan G Nyitray, Gary M Clifford, Thomas Curran, Gweneth Lazenby, Eric G Meissner, Katherine Sterba, Kalyani Sonawane, Ashish A Deshmukh","doi":"10.1093/jnci/djae127","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.</p>","PeriodicalId":14809,"journal":{"name":"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute","volume":" ","pages":"1508-1512"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11378306/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future patterns in burden and incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in the United States, 2001-2035.\",\"authors\":\"Ashvita Garg, Haluk Damgacioglu, Keith Sigel, Alan G Nyitray, Gary M Clifford, Thomas Curran, Gweneth Lazenby, Eric G Meissner, Katherine Sterba, Kalyani Sonawane, Ashish A Deshmukh\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/jnci/djae127\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14809,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1508-1512\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11378306/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djae127\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djae127","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future patterns in burden and incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus in the United States, 2001-2035.
Squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA) incidence has been rising in the United States, particularly among older adults (≥65 years). We estimated the impact of this rise on future burden (through 2035) using age-period-cohort modeling. The SCCA burden (cases/year) is expected to rise, reaching approximately 2700 among men and approximately 7000 among women in 2031-2035 (burden during 2016-2020 among men and women was approximately 2150 and approximately 4600), with most cases 65 years of age or older (61% in men and 70% in women in 2031-2035; from 40% and 46% in 2016-2020). SCCA incidence (per 100 000) is projected to rise among older men aged 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older (5.0, 4.9, and 4.3 in 2031-2035 vs 3.7, 3.8, and 3.4 in 2016-2020, respectively) and women (11.2, 12.6, and 8.0 in 2031-2035 vs 8.2, 6.8, and 5.2 in 2016-2020, respectively). The projected rise in SCCA burden among older adults is troubling and highlights the importance of improving early detection and clinical care.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of the National Cancer Institute is a reputable publication that undergoes a peer-review process. It is available in both print (ISSN: 0027-8874) and online (ISSN: 1460-2105) formats, with 12 issues released annually. The journal's primary aim is to disseminate innovative and important discoveries in the field of cancer research, with specific emphasis on clinical, epidemiologic, behavioral, and health outcomes studies. Authors are encouraged to submit reviews, minireviews, and commentaries. The journal ensures that submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous and expedited review to publish scientifically and medically significant findings in a timely manner.
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