基于气象数据的西伯利亚蛾 Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv：案例研究

IF 0.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY

Contemporary Problems of Ecology Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI:10.1134/s1995425524700215

D. A. Demidko, A. A. Goroshko, S. M. Sultson, N. N. Kulakova, P. V. Mikhaylov

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要疫情预测是森林害虫管理的重要组成部分。天气在食叶昆虫的爆发中起着重要作用。该领域基于天气的预测模型很多，而且或多或少都很精确。我们试图为西伯利亚南部泰加林区最有害的落叶害虫之一--西伯利亚蛾（SM）Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.建立这样一个模型。在相关地区（托木斯克州、克麦罗沃州和克拉斯诺亚尔斯克边疆区的南部泰加林和半森林），梯度提升（XBGoost）模型的精确度为 0.952。疫情爆发前第四年和第五年植被期的温度是更好的预测因子。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Weather Data-Based Prediction of the Siberian Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.: A Case Study

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Weather Data-Based Prediction of the Siberian Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.: A Case Study

Abstract

Outbreak prediction is a crucial component of forest pest management. Weather plays a substantial role in outbreaks of leaf-eating insects. Weather-based prediction models in this field are numerous and more or less precise. We have attempted to create such a model for the Siberian moth (SM) Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv., one of the most harmful defoliators in the southern taiga of Siberia. For the territory of interest (the southern taiga and hemiboreal forests of Tomsk oblast, Kemerovo oblast, and Krasnoyarsk krai), the gradient boosting (XBGoost) model was created with an accuracy of 0.952. Temperatures of the vegetation period in the fourth and fifth years before the onset of outbreak are better predictors.

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来源期刊

Contemporary Problems of Ecology 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Contemporary Problems of Ecology is a multidisciplinary periodical that publishes original works on the following subjects: theoretical and methodical issues of ecology, regional aspects of ecology, regional ecological disasters, structure and functioning of ecosystems, anthropogenic transformation of ecosystems. All basic aspects of modern ecology, including the most complicated interactions between living organisms and their environment, are presented. Some of the journal issues are dedicated to global changes in biological diversity at various levels of organization (populations, species, ecosystems) principles and methods of nature conservation.